The UK will then, by negligence, have contributed to a catastrophic defence rift between the continents of Europe and North America.
The Government should be as Ready on Day One as it can be: Deal or No Deal. To help achieve this end and reboot economic policy, Gove should go to the Treasury.
Britain could flourish under the minimalist WTO-type settlement that seems to be his bottom line. But it is not the optimal outcome, and threatens a significant downside.
On the anniversary of the EU referendum, the party leadership needs an audit of what went wrong this month, and a plan for the Tory future in this Parliament.
The absence of tariffs comes last, not first. They are the end-point of a successful negotiation, not its starting-point. They are the icing on the cake.
Such a deal would, on balance, be better than Most Favoured Nation Status. But MFN would be better than a bad deal – and giving up on regaining control of our borders.
He showed us how popular trends through the ages can be damagingly repetitive, self-fuelling and irrational.
In “Hard Bargains or Weak Compromises”, Dr Lee Rotherham and I probe whether association rather than membership would be best for Britain.