Decision time for Javid and Hunt?

Neither is at all likely indeed to succeed May if they nod reluctant assent to any scheme to sign up to the Customs Union – which might not succeed in any event.

Stewart Jackson: Don’t pivot to the Customs Union, Prime Minister – it could destroy the Conservative Party

Breaking her promise in such a way would enrage many voters, divide her Party, and cost the nation dearly in lost Brexit opportunities.

This rotting Cabinet

The conventional wisdom is: weak Prime Minister, strong Cabinet. But what we see is: weak Prime Minister, weak Cabinet.

Tim Bale: Johnson and Rees-Mogg are still in with a shout in the race to succeed May

New polling also reveals that neither is so far ahead as to be unstoppable, however.

Testing our survey against the latest polling of Party members. New evidence on Next Tory Leader.

Johnson has topped an ESRC poll, as he did our last survey. Its findings are even better for Brexiteers than ours were.

The first department to need boosting post-March. The Treasury? Business? Transport? No: Northern Ireland.

The challenge to “our precious union” will be as much constitutional as economic – Deal, No Brexit…or No Deal especially.

Our survey. Next Tory leader. Johnson is top again. Javid second, Raab third. Hunt is now fourth.

There are three contenders in double figures, one well ahead of the other two – and a very long tail of names in single figures,

ConservativeHome Awards: Rees-Mogg wins Brexiteer of the Year

Half of all respondents nominated the ERG Chairman, with another quarter voting for Dominic Raab.

ConservativeHome Awards: Johnson wins Resignation of the Year

Brexiteers take the podium spots, but Tracey Crouch wins an honourable mention for her stand on fixed-odds betting terminals.

Nick de Bois: What my government experience taught me about No Deal – and why planning must be stepped up

I well remember the representations from Treasury and BEIS to focus on the risks and play down the opportunities.

Shailesh Vara: A Better Deal would solve the backstop problem

Our plan is supported by remainers like me, by leavers such as David Davis and Dominic Raab and, crucially, by the DUP.

WATCH: Raab claims May could stay on even in the event of defeat

“I think she could still turn it round. But we need a change of approach: she needs to go back with, if you like, a ‘best final offer’ to the EU.”

Interview. As May’s defeat looms, Johnson sketches a manifesto: “People want to see a bit of gumption and a bit of leadership”

He expects her plan to be voted down on Tuesday, calls for a renegotiation which she could not conceivably lead – and rules out Norway Plus.

Drained of authority? Yes. Rudderless? Certainly. Humiliated? Absolutely. But May’s very weakness is becoming a strange strength.

She looks increasingly like the captive of pro-Remain cross-party MPs working together against the pro-Leave referendum mandate.

Johnson. Distrusted by Conservative MPs. Clung to by Party members. He extends his lead in our Next Tory Leader survey.

It may be that the former Foreign Secretary has become a kind of comfort blanket in bewilderingly unpredictable times.