It will probe whether or or not Sunak can prepare the country for that future – and perhaps succeed Johnson himself, “one fine day”.
Perhaps the simplest way of putting it is: it’s all about economic credibility, stupid. Because come 2024, it certainly will be.
We need to have a debate about which taxes are least damaging to economic growth. Over the long term, corporation tax ranks as being one of the worst.
I’m delighted to have been asked to help set up the new Taskforce for Innovation and Growth through Regulatory Reform.
It’s baffling why think-tanks are taking the OBR assessments as truth, given its prediction record.
Before pumping more funding into the public sector, we must restore the habit of making sure we have the money in the bank before we start spending it.
Plus: Johnson’s sub-optimal Brexit trade deal choice. I’m not dreaming of a normal Christmas. And: green jobs – overall, a cost not a benefit.
The first group of savings are about making the state more efficient, the second about creating a state focused on the core tasks of government.
If it it takes hold, people will not want to go to pubs, cinemas, shops or offices, so economic normality will be impossible anyway.
Modest consolidation over decades is one thing; large increases over a Parliament would be quite another.
While the Chancellor’s recovery measures look drastic, they are “middle of the pack” when compared to others in the world.
The Chancellor is groping his way, knowing well that the future is unknowable, trying to hold on to as much of the past as he can.
Given the Coronavirus uncertainties, whatever he announces could be even more provisional than most schemes of most Chancellors.
The big picture is that Johnson is dashing for growth. We devoutly hope it works but the precedents aren’t promising.
At the Centre for Policy Studies, we’ve teamed up with Sajid Javid to come up with a comprehensive set of ideas for tackling the challenges ahead.