More than 70 per cent of Conservative Party members believe the UK will leave the EU by 31st October

They aren’t just optimistic about Johnson’s electoral prospects, they have faith that he will fulfil his ‘do or die’ pledge.

Javid pips Johnson and Rees-Mogg to the top of the podium in our first Cabinet League Table of the new Government

Meanwhile Ruth Davidson, so often one of the highest-scoring politicians, is at the bottom of the chart after her row with Johnson and strong line against No Deal.

Johnson’s optimism spreads to the grassroots – 58 per cent of Party members expect a Tory majority at the next election

Our survey finds a dramatic change in outlook from a month ago.

ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.

Our final Next Tory Leader survey. Johnson 73 per cent, Hunt 27 per cent, say those members who have voted.

But because the ballot has been spread out over several weeks, earlier surveys may be a better guide to Tuesday’s result.

33 per cent? 45 per cent? 71 per cent? What’s the true leadership election turnout?

The truth matters a lot to how the race shapes up. And there are widely differing estimates.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 72 per cent, Hunt 28 per cent. 72 per cent overall have voted. On these figures, Johnson has already won.

If the survey is accurate, it would be reasonable to assume, on the evidence available, that he will gain between 67 per cent and 71 per cent of the vote. 

71 per cent of Johnson supporters and 58 per cent of Hunt supporters have already voted, according to our survey.

All of which supports the view that a clear majority of Party members have already returned their ballot papers.

Hit hard, Hunt

It is precisely his underdog status that should free him, during this evening’s TV debate, to bite a bit as well as bark.

Who should Conservative members vote for in the leadership election? What matters most for Party and country is delivering Brexit.

Our pre-Commons stage take was that Johnson is best placed to do so on time. As ballot papers are returned, we stick by that judgement.

Our final Next Tory Leader survey before ballot papers arrive finds Johnson on 67 per cent and Hunt on 29 per cent

It offers no evidence of a Hunt surge, and by this time next week a significant percentage of Party members will have voted.

Javid feels the benefit of his leadership bid in the final Cabinet League Table of the May years

Other candidates for the top job gain ground – but not all do so. Meanwhile, the Cabinet’s collective approval rating rises somewhat as May’s departure approaches.

Our Survey. Half of Tory members now want an electoral pact with the Brexit Party.

A tiny change in the return allows us to write that 50 per cent of Conservative Party members now want a pact.

Our Survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 66 per cent, Hunt 30 per cent.

Hunt has gained far more ground than Johnson since last week – but the latter has double the Foreign Secretary’s vote share and a lead of over 30 points.

Next Tory Leader. Our final survey of this Parliamentary stage. Gove is now second to Johnson.

One more day, two more ballots at most – and then we’re through to the membership stage of the contest.