The word from many of the more senior Conservative Party officials campaigning across the country is that in some areas the loses could be pretty bad, but in others – London gets mentioned a lot – there could be brighter news.
It is the third Shadow Cabinet League Table in a row in which she has come first. The first time she reached pole position was shortly before Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform UK. It underlines the marked shift from her earlier performances.
It should be obvious to the government, as it is to the general public, that the North Sea still has resources to exploit that could help to strengthen Britain’s energy security. The thing is that Miliband, and hence Labour’s, net-zero ideology gets in the way.
81.2 per cent of responders back Badenoch in saying she’d have granted use of our bases from the start of operations. 62.3 per cent say they backed the US and Israel striking the Iranian regime. 92.8 per cent back the UK spending more on defence, and faster.
43.7 per cent of members said it was likely there would be more defections of senior Tories and 12 per cent highly likely. Which begs the question: of those 57 per cent, who exactly do they think it might be?
Support for the Tory leader climbs in our latest ConHome survey, with more than 80 per cent now wanting her to lead the party into the next election – despite divisions over a Reform UK pact.
The Conservative leader is literally leading from the front, with one of her highest results in our league table. But the ‘Badenoch bounce’ remains about her, and getting any translation into a rise for the party is still gruelling ongoing work
The Tory Leader has finally surged into first place. That Badenoch had already overtaken Jenrick before his departure will be quietly savoured in LOTO.
Jenrick only just tops the polls, with Stride and Badenoch swapping places with the pair coming second and third respectively. It comes amid an awkward row over a twitter post from the Tories’ chairman linking Reform UK’s badge to a Nazi one.
53.9 per cent of members think it likely or highly likely Farage will be PM, 69.4 per cent think there’ll be some form of post election deal between Reform and the Conservatives, and 66.3 per cent expect more senior Tories to defect in future.
Beyond the individual movements, the broader pattern is clear. Our pre-conference survey captured a subdued party. The post-conference results, in contrast, suggest a membership energised by the Party’s Manchester outing and a clarified narrative. The reset moment did what it needed to do.
Badenoch does risk overstating the extent to which the Party has worked out the detail on things like withdrawing from the Convention. Fortunately, Labour’s initial counter-argument is moronic.
The logic is sound. If you want, and I know Team Badenoch do, to persuade people you are changed, and new, and departing from the recent past, newbies in new roles is one way of putting that message in the front of the shop window.
Jenrick’s dominance appears to be unassailable. He places comfortably on top, yet again with +70.4. Holden, promoted to shadow transport secretary, has entered the rankings in dead last at -14.9.
The quarter of members who report themselves ‘Indifferent’ to the idea is a little surprising. The Argentine president is, as we see, not an un-radical template to which to commit: