Labour do less well when figures are based on information about who has probably turned out to vote are used. The party’s turnout, then, will be crucial to the result.
It comes with a stipulation of its own. My constituency estimates, to adapt my 2015 mantra, are a probability, not a prediction.
The newly-elected Conservative MP shoots back at PETA’s absurd attempt to retire the seaside icon.
St Austell & Newquay, Hampstead & Kilburn, Great Yarmouth…what Shelter found, using Lord Ashcroft’s polling as the basis for our research.
However, a clear majority of Tory-UKIP switchers said that a Conservative overall majority was their preferred outcome.