Sir Andrew Green
is Chairman of Migrationwatch UK
would expect Conservatives to be very concerned about today’s immigration figures
while the immigration industry rejoices. Net migration fell last year from
252,000 to 216,000 but the drop is not statistically significant. There is thus
very little progress to show nearly half way through the government’s term.
public are bound to ask whether the government’s pledge to reduce net migration
to tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament is achievable and, if so,
what more needs to be done.
reasons for the slow progress are clear. The immigration rules are so complex
that they have taken two years to review and many of the changes have not yet
taken effect – partly because the courts do not allow the government to change
the rules on those already here. The numbers will come down in future years but
nobody can be sure that they will be below 100,000 by the end of this Parliament.
what can be done? The first thing is to choose the right target. EU migration
is a distraction. It amounts to only 20-30% of net foreign migration and is
largely cancelled out by British emigration. In the long term it would decline
if the economies of Eastern Europe improved.
real reason for the increase is the inflow from non-EU countries triggered by Labour
policy. For the last ten years 300,000 people have arrived from outside the EU
every year but only 100,000 have left; last year was no different. The
government have been right, therefore, to tackle each of the main routes – students, economic migration and marriage. It is widely agreed that Damian Green
has done some sterling work – strongly supported by Theresa May.
on economic migration have probably been taken as far as they can for the time
being. Business now needs a period of stability and predictability. Meanwhile,
they should stop bleating about Britain not being “open for business”. In the
first year of operation of the “cap”, less than half of the work permits available
have been taken up. Transfers by international companies, which are not capped,
grew from 22,000 in 2009 to 30,000 in 2011. There are also special arrangements
for entrepreneurs. Furthermore, 12
million people arrive every year from outside the EU, including over 1.5 million
business visitors. The complaints of the business community do not stand up. Indeed,
they are damaging their own cause by feeding such a false impression.
real battle ground now lies with international students. The numbers have
increased by 60% in the last 5 years and many institutions have plans for even
further increases. Nearly 20% of students stay on legally and an unknown number
do so illegally. With half a million non EU students now arriving every year
and still no checks on their departure, a conflict is developing between the
ambitions of the higher education sector and the strong public demand for
consequences of failing to control immigration are beginning to dawn even on
the enthusiasts. If net immigration is allowed to continue at the 200,000 a
year as over the last ten years, our population will grow by an extra five million
in just 15 years. This is equivalent to building our eight largest cities
outside the capital – that is Birmingham, Leeds, Glasgow, Sheffield, Bradford,
Manchester, Liverpool and Bristol – just for new immigrants and their children.
Where can we possibly find the money for this when £1 in every £4 that the
government spends is borrowed?
public are increasingly aware of this. As maternity units, primary schools and
housing come under growing pressure they will not understand why the government
has failed to get a grip of immigration – especially as we are an island.
follows that firm action must be taken to cut out bogus students and ensure
that genuine students return home at the end of their courses. The government
will also have to look at some way of limiting the inflow of foreign students –
perhaps by focussing on those who really are the brightest and the best. This
will not be popular with the lesser universities and colleges but it is
unavoidable if the overriding objective of policy is to be achieved.
government must also reform the Points Based System introduced towards the end
of the Labour years. It has proved to be mindless and bureaucratic. It
infuriates business and confuses visitors. We must restore the element of human
judgement – sometimes called common sense – which has been deleted from the
system. This may cost money but the cost of failing to control immigration – in
both financial and social terms – would be vastly greater.
political terms, it is time the Conservatives turned up the heat on Liberal
Democrat obstruction. 70% of potential Lib Deb voters support the government’s
immigration objectives but it seems that their activists wield the whip. As for
Labour, they admitted 3½ million foreign immigrants while 1 million British
people departed our shores and they left the system in chaos. They are in no
position to carp but, in the absence of any serious policy, they are dong just
reality is that both the Prime Minister’s credibility and the public’s trust in
the political system are on the line. The Conservatives cannot afford to fail
on this issue.