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ConservativeHome has feared to tread where others have rushed in over forecasting today’s votes.

This is because until one knows what MPs will actually vote on, speculation risks going very wide of the mark.

But we now believe that it’s possible to assess what is most likely to happen if there is a straight up-and-down vote on today’s deal, as below.

– – –

For: 320

283 Conservatives.

10 Labour.

18 whipless former Tories.

Amber Rudd

And the folllowing independents: Ian Austin, Nick Boles, Charlie Elphicke, Frank Field, Syvia Hermon, Ivan Lewis, Stephen Lloyd and John Woodcock. (8).

Against: 322

235 Labour.

35 SNP.

19 Liberal Democrats.

10 DUP

5 Spartans

5 Independent Group for Change

4 Plaid Cyrmu

3 whipless former Tories – Guto Bebb, Dominic Grieve, Justin Greening.

1 Green

And the following independents: Stephen Hepburn, Kelvin Hopkins, Jared O’Mara, Gavin Shuker, Chris Williamson.

Now for a health warning.

Debatable allocations include =-

  • Jo Johnson, who supports a second referendum, in the Ayes column
  • Philip Hammond in the Ayes colum.
  • Finally, lists of this kind take little account of absentionsm, which

But there is very unlikely to a straight up, straight down vote on the deal today.

This is because the Letwin amendment is likely to be passed – since it apparently has the support of all the main parties plus the 21.

In which event, the Government is set to pull its motion.

25 comments for: Our guestimate of the numbers. Letwin’s amendment should pass. But were Johnson’s deal voted on, it would be too close to call.

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