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Frank Field has urged Boris Johnson to put his new Brexit plan to a declaratory vote in the Commons.

What result might it produce?

Consider these figures:

– – –

Conservative: 288

Labour: 2

DUP: 10

Conservative without the whip: 17

Other Independent: 8

Total for: 325

– – –

Labour: 244

SNP: 35

Liberal Democrat: 18

Independent Group for Change: 5

Conservative without the whip: 3

Other Independent: 7

Plaid Cymru: 4

Greens: 1

Total against: 317

Such a breakdown would leave a declaratory vote passing by eight votes.

– – –

Those numbers above are a very broad estimate indeed.

Of course, it is more likely than not that no new deal will be agreed between the UK and the EU at all.

And, if it is, is likely to see some concessions on the UK side: so any Commons vote would not be on the Prime Minister’s plan as it now stands.

Nonetheless, these figures show in our view that Commons support for any deal still cannot be guaranteed – despite all the upbeat mood music from Downing Street today.

As readers will see we have –

On the one hand, allocated only two Labour MPs to the Government.

On the other, not allocated, say, Ken Clarke or Jo Johnson to the Opposition.

In the event of a more EU-friendly deal being put to the Commons, one might expect more Labour MPs to vote with the Prime Minister; then again, one might expect some of the Spartans to vote against.

At any rate, below is more detail of our stab at a guesstimate.

– – –

The following independents recently deprived of the Whip were allocated to the Government –

  • Richard Benyon
  • Steve Brine
  • Alistair Burt
  • Greg Clark
  • Ken Clarke

 

  • David Gauke
  • Philip Hammond
  • Stephen Hammond
  • Richard Harrington
  • Margot James

 

  • Oliver Letwin
  • Ann Milton
  • Caroline Nokes
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Nick Soames

 

  • Rory Stewart
  • Ed Vaizey

– and the following other independents were allocated to the Government –

  • Ian Austin
  • Nick Boles
  • Charlie Elphicke
  • Frank Field
  • John Woodcock

 

  • Ivan Lewis
  • Stephen Lloyd
  • Amber Rudd

– and two Labour MPs were allocated to the Government:

  • Kate Hoey
  • John Mann

– – –

The following independents recently deprived of the Whip were allocated to the Opposition (all are second referendum supporters) –

  • Guto Bebb
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Justine Greening

– and the following other independents were allocated to the Opposition –

  • Heidi Allen
  • Sylvia Hermon
  • Mike Hill
  • Kelvin Hopkins
  • Jared O’Mara

 

  • Gavin Shuker
  • Chris Williamson

77 comments for: A Commons declaratory vote on Johnson’s new Brexit plan would be a close-run thing

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