Conservative Leadership election: the breakdown of candidates’ supporters by Meaningful Vote decision

Source: David Jeffery’s Blog.

David Jeffery of Liverpool University has been undertaking some fascinating study in depth of the leadership contest on his blog – which we have quoted several times in the course of our coverage.

So we are this week running a selection of some of his most interesting findings. They and much more can be seen on his blog, which we link to above.

Jeffery declares at the start that “this information in this is correct as of 17:00, 13/06/2018”.

His study is of declared supporters from before the first ballot – so Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper, Matt Hancock, Dominic Raab and Rory Stewart are all included in his calculation.

The chart above shows the percentage figures. Obviously, it must be remembered that some candidates won more declared supporters (and votes) than others, and the percentages must be seen in that light.

Look at how deep and wide, relative to the others, Raab’s collection of refuseniks reaches and stretches.  McVey’s is deeper at the start but tails off later (and of course she is proceeding from a smaller base.  Johnson’s persists but is shallower than Raab’s.

And note, too, how small Hancock’s share of rebels is, and how soon Leadsom’s own limited band of supporters fell into line with the Government.  The opposition of Harper’s supporters in the Meaningful Vote was marked early and faded quickly.