Conservative Leadership election: the breakdown of candidates’ supporters by ERG membership.

Source: David Jeffery’s Blog.

David Jeffery of Liverpool University has been undertaking some fascinating study in depth of the leadership contest on his blog – which we have quoted several times in the course of our coverage.

So we are this week running a selection of some of his most interesting findings. They and much more can be seen on his blog, which we link to above.

Jeffery declares at the start that “this information in this is correct as of 17:00, 13/06/2018”.

His study is of declared supporters from before the first ballot – so Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper, Matt Hancock, Dominic Raab and Rory Stewart are all included in his calculation.

The chart above shows the percentage figures. Obviously, it must be remembered that some candidates won more declared supporters (and votes) than others, and the percentages must be seen in that light.

Looking at the differences between candidates really illustrates the journey Raab and Johnson have been on, if not together then alongside one another. The former Foreign Secretary reportedly performed well at the ERG hustings (in which he was pitched directly in competition with Raab), and that is reflected in his numbers above. That dealt an early blow to Raab’s ambitions, and contributed to a heavy Brexiteer squeeze of his voter.

Even after that disruption, a hefty share of Raab’s support base were still in the ERG. Following his elimination, more than a few of them appear to have shifted their support to Johnson as the surviving candidate who already enjoys the support of a good number of their ERG colleagues. Raab’s former supporters offered inevitably slim pickings for Stewart, contributing to his difficulty in capitalising on the opportunity.