Conservative Leadership election: the breakdown of candidates’ supporters by Leave and Remain.
Source: David Jeffery’s Blog.
David Jeffery of Liverpool University has been undertaking some fascinating study in depth of the contest on his blog – which we have quoted several times in the course of our coverage.
So we will this week run a selection of some of his most interesting findings. They and much more can be seen on his blog, which we link to above.
Jeffery declares at the start that “this information in this is correct as of 17:00, 13/06/2018”.
His study is of declared supporters from before the first ballot – so Esther McVey, Andrea Leadsom, Mark Harper and Matt Hancock are all included in his calculation.
The chart above shows the percentage figures. Obviously, it must be remembered that some candidates won more declared supporters (and votes) than others, and the percentages must be seen in that light.
To us, the most interesting findings relate to candidates with a heavy skew in one direction or another. For example, while Sajid Javid and Jeremy Hunt appear to face a challenge in raising the percentage of their supporters who backed Leave, Rory Stewart has even greater difficulties, and Raab has much work to do in the opposite direction. Interestingly, despite supporting Leave in the referendum, in Gove’s camp Remain MPs outnumber Leavers by a margin of two to one.
David Jeffery is on Twitter as @DavidJeffery_.