Executive Summary
Compared to the recent Conservative intake of 2015, there are –
(Note: ‘safe seats’ refers to the ten previously-held seats which selected new MPs.)
Our snapshot take:
“Theresa May has not had the time to make her mark on the class of 2017 that her predecessor did on ‘Cameron’s Children’, and nowhere is this more apparent than with the low proportion of women returned. But the new leadership is reflected in other changes: there are fewer lawyers and privately-educated candidates, and more business people and veterans of previous election campaigns. ”
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Introduction
Two years ago we introduced ‘Cameron’s Children‘, our examination of the generation of Conservative MPs who entered the Commons after five years of a Conservative-led Government. Our aim was to try to identify any salient features, and see what they told us about how the Party had evolved under David Cameron’s leadership.
Suffice to say we did not expect to be writing a sequel quite so soon. But despite the Party’s unexpected setback at the snap election in June, there are still 29 new faces on the Tory benches.
There are obviously key differences between the Class of 2017 and its immediate predecessor. The first is size: in Cameron’s Children we were examining an intake 74 strong, which provided us with much more data within which to try to identify meaningful trends.
Perhaps more important is the 2017 intake’s relationship with the Prime Minister. Whilst they may have been selected during Theresa May’s premiership, and during the short period at which she was at the height of her powers, Cameron had been Tory leader for a full decade by the time the Class of 2015 were taking their seats. Whilst CCHQ provoked controversy with its central control of selections, the results show that if there was an attempt to influence the demographic profile of the resulting MPs, then it was unsuccessful.
Nonetheless, if we can’t see the emergence of a distinctive ‘Mayite’ candidate, we can note that some features of the Cameroon generation have receded: compared to 2015 there are fewer lawyers, fewer ethnic minority members, fewer candidates who (openly, at least) attended private school, and more who have previously fought seats. Other features, such as the very high shares for married candidates and former councillors, have remained consistent.
Thus where our portrait of the Class of 2015 was of a female lawyer who probably hadn’t stood for Parliament before, ‘May’s Man’ is a tending-to-middle-aged, state-educated businessman with one or more election campaigns under his belt – which is perhaps more representative of the Prime Minister, and her strong relationship with the grassroots, than a narrow gender view might suggest.
Nine points on the Conservatives of 2017
In the run-up to the election, there was much controversy in some quarters about clashes between associations and CCHQ about candidate selections – especially the imposition of female candidates.
Theresa May helped to set up Women2Win, which aims to increase the number of women holding office for the Tories, and with their champion at the apex of her power it seemed very probable that this might have been a breakthrough night for them.
Unfortunately, the actual story is rather different: of the 29 new MPs to have taken their seats on the Tory benches, only six are female. Of these five are from the ten previously-held, safe seats: Kemi Badenoch, Rachel Maclean (Redditch), Gillian Keegan (Chichester), Vicky Ford (Chelmsford), and Julia Dockerill (Hornchurch and Upminster). From the 19 newly-captured seats the only one was elected: Kirstene Hair (Angus).
CCHQ managed to secure a 50/50 split in safe seats. The reason for the 18-to-1 gulf in the rest will surely be investigated as part of the Party’s post-mortem, but CCHQ’s systemic misreading of which seats were competitive seems likely to have been a factor.
Just as in 2015, there is a clear gulf between safe seats and those seats the Conservatives won (in this case, often very unexpectedly) from other parties. Kemi Badenoch (Saffron Walden) and Bim Afomali (Hitchen and Harpenden) make up 20 per cent of 2017’s much-reduced cohort of safe-seat new entrants, but of their 19 new-win peers not a single one is from a minority background.
Nonetheless, at almost seven per cent of the Class of 2017 the Party still managed to do better proportionally than it did in 2010 (three per cent), and only a little worse than 2015 (nine per cent).
It’s not at all obvious that there’s an easy fix to this dynamic: based on the 2015 and 2017 intakes, the Party tends to pick up seats unexpectedly when running local candidates. Unless and until Tory performance amongst ethnic minority voters improves, the proportion of minority MPs elected in this manner is likely to remain vanishingly low if not, as now, entirely non-existent.
CCHQ will undoubtedly continue to use safe seats to try to offset this disadvantage and keep introducing new BME talent onto the Tory benches, but that is no long-term alternative to making the Party more competitive with ethnic minority voters and the rising number of seats where they can tip the balance.
One of the clear divisions we observed in ‘Cameron’s Children’ was the public/private split: whilst only three of the 30 safe-seaters seemed to have any public sector experience, 19 of the 37 ‘new-seaters’ did. The two groups offered different sorts of diversity: racial and gendered in the former case, professional in the latter.
In 2017 that difference has disappeared, along with most traces of the public sector. We count only five candidates with a background in the public services or the Armed Forces: Andrew Bowie (Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine), Royal Navy; Bill Grant (Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock), fireman; Leo Docherty (Aldershot), Army; Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar), teacher and lecturer; and Bob Seely (Isle of Wight), army.
If we exclude the three with Armed Forces experience, that being a more traditional Tory recruiting ground, that’s just two new MPs out of 29 with backgrounds in the public sector.
Two years ago we asked “Is law the new PPE?” It doesn’t look like it based on this intake, which contains a grand total of just four lawyers: Afolami, John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk), Paul Masterton (East Renfrewshire), and Simon Clarke (Middlesborough South and East Cleveland).
Luke Graham (Ochil and South Perthshire), a former account, provides some reinforcement for the professions but the overwhelming majority of the Class of 2017 have backgrounds in business across a variety of sectors. Badenoch and Hair in publishing; Maclean in technology; Thomson, Keegan, and Ford in banking.
One slightly unusual trend is the number of candidates with backgrounds connected to food or agriculture: Lee Rowley (North East Derbyshire) helped his family’s milk-delivery business, and Douglas Ross (Moray) worked as a dairyman; Alister Jack (Dumfries and Galloway) and Colin Clark (Gordon) are farmers, whilst Hair was raised in a farming family; and Ben Bradley (Mansfield) and Damien Moore (Southport) worked for supermarkets.
As we said in the introduction, where we can’t find out where somebody went to school we simply haven’t included it – and a glance down the potted biographies below will show that plenty of candidates have not chosen to reveal their schooling.
Nonetheless, we can only find four who clearly state that they went to a private school: Afomali to Eton College, Burghart to Millfield, Ford to Marlborough College, and Seely to Harrow.
By contrast, at least 14 out of 29 were state-educated. At just under 50 per cent this is much closer to 2010’s overall share than 2015’s, where the public schools staged something of a comeback.
It’s very likely that a few of the new MPs who haven’t listed their pre-university education were privately educated, but at just over 10 per cent this is a big reversal on the previous intake, of which only 34 per cent were state-educated. Curiously, whilst safe-seaters were more likely to be state-educated in 2015, all four of our out-and-proud private school alumni in 2017 were defending already-held constituencies.
Including one civil partnership, more than two in three (65 per cent) of the new intake are married, rising to 90 per cent of those with safe seats. This is actually down on two years ago, when the numbers were 73 and 87 per cent respectively.
This very strong representation for marriage suggests that, as we noted two years ago, the strain that a Parliamentary career can place on married life isn’t drawing a higher proportion of single people into the Commons – or if it is, they’re proving less successful as candidates than their married peers.
The following members of the Class of 2017 have been councillors: Bradley, Brereton, Clark, Docherty, Dockerill, Ford, Grant, Hughes, Keegan, Lewer, Moore, Ross, Rowley, Seely, Thomson, and Watling. Additionally Badenoch served in the London Assembly whilst Lamont, Ross, and Thomson were Members of the Scottish Parliament.
Whilst a strong showing, as a proportion this is down on 2015 when half the safe-seaters and more than two thirds of those that won new seats had some sort of local or devolved government experience.
Almost twenty years on from the advent of devolution to Scotland, Wales, and London, there will likely be ever-more MPs elected to Westminster who have previously served on a subordinate legislature. This could give them a head-start when it comes to the business of being a legislator, but it may cause friction too – the rurmoured tensions between the new Scottish MPs and the Conservative whips’ office being a case in point.
The top point of our overview of the Class of 2015 was entitled ‘A novice-packed intake’, highlighting how a (relatively) low proportion of the new MPs had fought seats before.
It’s a very different story this time: two thirds of the 2017 intake have stood for the Party in a previous contest, including 70 per cent of those in safe seats and 12 out of 19 of the new wins. Was this because of a change in priorities at CCHQ? Or did the additional experience help these candidates to overcome the trials of an unexpectedly difficult campaign?
Finally, a big and very welcome change not just on 2015 but on 2010, 2005, 2001, and 1997: a substantial cohort of Scottish MPs has finally been returned to the Conservative benches.
Indeed, this Scottish surge couldn’t have been better timed, as the 12 additional seats delivered by Ruth Davidson’s troops have made the difference between a just-about-functioning majority for the Government (with the support of the Democratic Unionists) and the straightjacket of a minority government.
What impact will this new Westminster cohort have on the relationship between the Scottish Conservatives and the national Party? There are those who believe, or hope, that the Scots Tories will act as a party within a party, taking orders from Ruth Davidson and operating much as the Christian Social Union do in Germany, albeit in a slightly less formal way.
But that won’t be straightforward: Conservative MPs are elected on a single, national manifesto on reserved policies. Moreover, it’s the Whips’ Office, not the Scottish leaders’, which will smooth or block their path to ministerial and Cabinet rank. And won’t Thomson, one of the leading Scottish Brexiteers, find more common ground with his new colleagues the European Research Group?
The last point is particularly important as the Government navigates the Brexit negotiations: nearly four in ten Scottish voters backed Leave, yet there were scarcely any pro-Brexit voices in the Scottish political class. Suborning Scots’ Westminster representation to the control of the Holyrood elite would negate Parliament’s ability to correct this imbalance.
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New Seats
Ross Thomson
Constituency: Aberdeen South
Education: Bridge of Don Academy, then read Politics and International Relations at the University of Aberdeen.
Family: In a civil partnership with his partner, Douglas.
Work: Retail – worked for the Bank of Scotland and Debenhams.
Councillor: Yes – served on Aberdeen Council since May 2012, was then elected an MSP.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – fought Gordon in 2010 and has contested Holyrood elections.
Snapshot: Unlike most of his colleagues, Thomson is a vocal Brexiteer and played a leading role in Vote Leave’s Scottish campaign.
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Andrew Bowie
Constituency: Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Education: Inverurie Academy, followed by Britannia Royal Naval College and the University of Aberdeen.
Work: After three years in the Royal Navy and a stint in manufacturing, entered politics and worked for the Scottish Conservatives, Ian Duncan MEP, and an MSP.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: “Raised in the North East“, he appeared in May’s first general election stop in Scotland this summer.
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Kirstene Hair
Constituency: Angus
Education: Read Politics at the University of Aberdeen.
Family: “Raised among a large farming family“.
Work: Prior to her election, Hair worked for DC Thomson, the publishers of the Beano.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No, but fought the 2016 Holyrood election.
Snapshot: Very local, having been born in Angus, and at just 27 years old, Hair is one of the youngest MPs in the new Parliament.
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Bill Grant
Constituency: Ayr, Carrick, and Cumnock
Education: Littlemill Primary and Cumnock Academy.
Family: Married to Agnes.
Work: Retired after 31 years’ service as a fireman.
Councillor: Yes – served on South Ayrshire Council since 2007.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – fought the same seat in 2010.
Snapshot: Describes himself as a keen enthusiast for gardening, motorcycling, and DIY.
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David Duguid
Constituency: Banff and Buchan
Education: Banff Academy and Robert Gordon University.
Work: Ran a management consultancy, and has “25 years’ experience in the oil and gas industry”.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: Represents Scotland’s only pro-Leave constituency, and is determined to champion Scottish fishermen in Parliament.
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John Lamont
Constituency: Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk
Education: Kilwinning Academy, followed by the School of Law at the University of Glasgow.
Work: Solicitor before being elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2007, where he served as chief whip.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – he fought this seat in the three previous elections.
Snapshot: One of the driving forces behind the decision for the Scottish Tory MPs to pool their resources and hire a very small London team.
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Giles Watling
Constituency: Clacton
Family: Wife and two daughters.
Work: An actor from a family of actors, he has “worked extensively in British theatre and television”.
Councillor: Yes – served on Tendring District Council from 2007.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – he contested Clacton at both the 2014 by-election and the 2015 general election.
Snapshot: In contrast with Douglas Carswell, his predecessor, Watling’s website is overwhelmingly focused on his local connections, campaigns, and record.
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Lee Rowley
Constituency: North-East Derbyshire
Education: St Mary’s High School before winning an exhibition to Lincoln College, Oxford.
Family: “Lee comes from a mining family with a long history in our area. Both of his grandfathers were miners at pits in the area… His great aunt used to run the post office”.
Work: Spent 20 years assisting the family milk-delivery business in addition to a career spanning in energy, education, finance, and insurance.
Councillor: Yes – served on Westminster Council from 2006 to 2014.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes, contested the same seat in 2015.
Snapshot: Describes himself as LGBT, and is the first MP so described to represent North-East Derbyshire.
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Alister Jack
Constituency: Dumfries and Galloway
Education: Dalbeattie Primary School.
Family: Married to Ann, with three grown-up children.
Work: Farmer and businessman, also involved in forestry and fishing.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – fought Tweeddale, Ettrick, and Lauderdale in 1997.
Snapshot: A successful businessman with more than two decades’ experience in the Scottish Conservatives.
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Paul Masterton
Constituency: East Renfrewshire
Education: Read Law at the University of Dundee.
Work: Was previously a solicitor specialising in pension law.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No, but contested the 2016 Holyrood elections.
Snapshot: Won this former Tory bastion handily despite Labour running Blair McDougall, the former head of the Better Together campaign against Scottish independence.
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Colin Clark
Constituency: Gordon
Education: Turiff Academy and Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.
Family: Married with two young sons.
Work: Ran a fresh produce business in Lincolnshire for ten years before taking over the family farm.
Councillor: Yes – elected to Aberdeenshire Council at a 2016 by-election.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested this seat at the 2015 election and stood in the 2016 Holyrood election.
Snapshot: “I am a job creator with real life experience who has made his own way in a tough business world.” He is also the man who unseated Alex Salmond.
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Ben Bradley
Constituency: Mansfield
Education: Graduated from Nottingham Trent University in 2013.
Family: Lives with his wife Shanade and sons Harley and Taylor.
Work: Career spanned hotels, supermarkets, and the Open University before entering politics to work for Mark Spencer MP in 2013. Most recently covered Nick Boles’ constituency work during the latter’s cancer treatment.
Councillor: Yes – served on Ashfield District Council since 2015.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: Put his coaching qualifications to good use volunteering with local hockey teams, and alongside education and skills says sport will be one of his key focuses in Parliament.
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Simon Clarke
Constituency: Middlesborough South and East Cleveland
Education: Red House School, followed by a scholarship to Oxford.
Family: Married to Hannah, with whom he has a young son.
Work: Qualified as a solicitor, then the House of Commons where he “worked as a policy specialist on health and education” for Dominic Raab and Graham Stuart.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – fought Middlesbrough in 2015.
Snapshot: A former special adviser with local roots in the region, is apparently the second-tallest MP in the House.
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Douglas Ross
Constituency: Moray
Work: Elected as an MSP for the Highlands and Islands in 2016, during which he continued his previous career as “one of Scotland’s top referees”. He also worked as a dairyman.
Councillor: Yes – served on Moray Council since 2007.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested Moray in 2010 and 2015, as well as the 2011 and 2016 Holyrood elections.
Snapshot: Tipped by some as a future minister, or a potential successor to Davidson. Got himself in hot water for saying he favoured “tougher enforcement against gypsies and travellers”.
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Luke Graham
Constituency: Ochil and South Perthshire
Education: Dorcan Comprehensive School, then read economics and social policy at the University of Sheffield.
Work: A qualified accountant, he has worked around the world as well as starting his own small company.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested the same seat in 2015.
Snapshot: Stepped back into front-line politics due to the 2014 independence referendum, and served as finance director of Stronger In during the EU referendum.
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Damien Moore
Constituency: Southport
Work: Before entering Parliament, Moore worked as a retail manager for Asda.
Councillor: Yes – was deputy leader of the Conservative group on Preston City Council.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Fought Southport in 2015, falling just over 1,300 votes short.
Snapshot: We’ll provide one as soon as he does: at time of press the ‘About Damien’ section of his website is still ‘Coming soon…’. He does swell the ranks of the LGBTories.
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Stephen Kerr
Constituency: Stirling
Education: Forfar Academy, then read business at Stirling University.
Family: Married to Yvonne, with four children.
Work: “His career has largely been spent working in business, mainly in sales and marketing.”
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – stood in the 2005 and 2015 general elections.
Snapshot: Kerr is a Mormon, and has been involved in the party since his teenage years. He served as chairman of the Stirling University Conservative Association and vice-chairman of Scottish Conservative Students.
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Jack Brereton
Constituency: Stoke-on-Trent South
Education: Read politics and international relations at Keele University, and studied further at University College London after graduating in 2012.
Family: Married to Laura.
Work: Formerly a Parliamentary assistant to Karen Bradley, the Culture Secretary.
Councillor: Yes – he serves on Stoke-on-Trent City Council and was deputy leader of the Conservative group.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: Aged just 26, he’s the youngest Conservative MP of the 2017 intake.
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Eddie Hughes
Constituency: Walsall North
Education: Read civil engineering at the University of Glamorgan.
Family: Married with two grown-up children.
Councillor: Yes – he has been a Walsall councillor since 1999.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: “Eddie’s primary focus is to deliver on the EU referendum result” and tackle crime and anti-social behaviour.
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Held Seats
Leo Docherty
Constituency: Aldershot
Education: University of London and the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst.
Family: Married to Lucy, with two young children.
Work: Formerly served in the Scots Guards, including tours of Afghanistan and Iraq.
Councillor: Yes.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – fought Caerphilly in 2015.
Snapshot: Travelled from Turkey to Afghanistan (“horseback, bicycle, and on foot”) after leaving the Army, then set up the Conservative Middle East Council in 2010.
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Alex Burghart
Constituency: Brentwood and Ongar
Education: Millfield School, University of Oxford and King’s College London.
Family: Married to Hermione, with two young children.
Work: A former school teacher and lecturer, also worked in the Department for Education and as a special adviser to Theresa May.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: “For four years Alex was Director of Policy at the Centre for Social Justice, the organisation set up by Iain Duncan Smith to tackle the root causes of poverty”.
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Bob Seely
Constituency: Isle of Wight
Education: Harrow and King’s College, London.
Work: Former foreign correspondent, with extensive experience in the former Eastern Bloc. Also worked for the Conservative Party and, from 2008, in the Army.
Councillor: Yes, has sat on Isle of Wight Council since 2013.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested Broxtowe in 2005.
Snapshot: A journalist turned soldier turned academic, and the sixth generation of his family to be involved in Isle of Wight politics.
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Kemi Badenoch
Constituency: Saffron Walden
Education: University of Sussex and Birkbeck, University of London.
Family: Married to Hamish, with a son and a daughter.
Work: “Prior to the Assembly, Kemi was a Director at the Spectator magazine and before that an Associate Director at Coutts & Co.”
Councillor: No, but served on the London Assembly and was economic spokesperson for the GLA Conservatives.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – stood against Tessa Jowell in Dulwich and West Norwood in 2010.
Snapshot: “Her other areas of interest include engineering and technology, social mobility and integration. She provides regular mentoring to women who wish to pursue careers in technology.”
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Rachel Maclean
Constituency: Redditch
Education: Attended a comprehensive school.
Family: Married to David with four grown-up children.
Work: Is a “technology entrepreneur” who has founded several businesses.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested Birmingham Northfield in 2015.
Snapshot: Lists a huge range of local volunteering experience in her biography and set up a charity to help give young people skills.
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Gillian Keegan
Constituency: Chichester
Education: Comprehensive school, Liverpool John Mores University, and the London Business School.
Family: Married to Michael, with two stepsons.
Work: After an apprenticeship at an electronics firm and sponsored Business Studies degree, “For the next 25 years she worked and lived abroad, working in the manufacturing, banking and IT industries”.
Councillor: Yes, elected in October 2014.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – stood in St Helens South and Whiston in 2015.
Snapshot: “Gillian is particularly interested in improving career opportunities for school leavers and attracting more business investment.”
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Vicky Ford
Constituency: Chelmsford
Education: Omagh Academy, St Paul’s Girls’ School, Marlborough College, and the University of Cambridge.
Family: Married to Hugo, with three “student-aged” children.
Work: Served as an MEP from 2009, prior to which she spent 14 years in banking.
Councillor: Yes – formerly sat on South Cambridgeshire district council.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested Birmingham Northfield in 2005.
Snapshot: “Vicky is a longstanding campaigner for the need for reform in Europe focussing on the need to boost economic growth by reducing bureaucracy and increasing competitiveness.”
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Julia Dockerill
Constituency: Hornchurch and Upminster
Education: Read Social and Political Sciences at Cambridge.
Family: Recently married to partner of five years.
Work: “Leading the office of a central London MP” and co-authoring books on the financial crash.
Councillor: Yes – in Tower Hamlets since 2014.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: “It was the experience of the corruption, electoral fraud and maladministration of the borough under former Mayor, Lutfur Rahman, that inspired me to enter elected politics.”
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Andrew Lewer
Constituency: Northampton South
Education: Queen Elizabeth’s Grammar School, Newcastle University, and Cambridge.
Family: “He is married to Gabriela and has a son Philip.”
Work: Local Government and the European Parliament, then the Commons.
Councillor: Yes – district councillor in 2003, county council in 2005. Became youngest council leader in Britain when the Tories took Derbyshire in 2009.
Former Parliamentary candidate: No.
Snapshot: “He received his MBE in 2014 for his services as Leader of Derbyshire County Council”.
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Bim Afomali
Constituency: Hitchen and Harpenden
Education: Bishopsgate School, Eton College, and Oxford.
Family: Married to Hetti, with two boys.
Work: “I spent ten years in the City advising some of the biggest companies in the world, both British and international” as a corporate lawyer.
Councillor: No.
Former Parliamentary candidate: Yes – contested Lewisham Deptford in 2015.
Snapshot: “I am passionate about the need to ensure that everyone has access to a fantastic education and greater opportunities. I was a primary school governor for several years and I have always supported (and volunteered for) charities that focus on helping people return to work.”
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Footnote: A word on methodology.
When compiling our potted biographies, we have drawn on the information which can be readily gleaned from a candidate’s website, press coverage, Wikipedia entry, and so – i.e. whatever a mildly interested constituent might uncover. Where a candidate has been unforthcoming, usually with regards to family or education, we have simply acknowledged the hole in their profile. There is also a chance that some profiles may end up out of date if their subjects subsequently publish more detailed or up-to-date information. As we said last time, our aim is to provide snapshots, not CVs.