The Conservatives.

David Cameron.

George Osborne.

Lynton Crosby – special mention in dispatches, pushed Tories north of 35 per cent.

David Miliband.

Party member respondents to ConHome’s monthly survey – 72% said that Cameron would be back in Downing Street as Prime Minister.

Nick Clegg, because he won.


Chuka Umunna.

Justine Thornton – spared up to five grim years or more as a Downing Street spouse.

Jim Messina.

Andrea Jenkyns.

Dr Tania Mathias.

Andrew Neil.

Boris (because his leadership campaign for 2018 is intact).

The Sun (in England).

The Sun (in Scotland).

Louise Mensch – a safe seat for that woman!

Nicola Sturgeon.

Charlotte Leslie, ConservativeHome columnist.

David Mundell.

Dan Hodges (because he was right about Miliband all along).

Conservative air war.

Tory rebels (because they now hold the whip hand).

EU referendum.

Tom Conti.

Alex Salmond.

The NHS – £8 billion extra.

Tory press.

Matthew Parris.

Free Schools.

Douglas Carswell.

Tim Farron.

Caroline Lucas.

Labour in Bradford West.

Grant Shapps.

Most Conservative candidates in red/blue marginal seats.

Nearly all Conservative candidates in blue/yellow marginal seats.

Sylvia Hermon.

Sir John Major.

Dan Jarvis.

Offshore Wind.

Northern Powerhouse.

Danny Kinahan – new Ulster Unionist MP.


Tony Blair.

Lots of people who pay inheritance tax.

Tory SpAds returning to their departments.

Talking of SpAds, Nick Timothy, mastermind of the Tory campaign in Thanet South.

Andrew Gimson, ultimate good luck token for Conservative candidates in red/blue marginal seats.

Andrew Gimson, top of the range in the ConHome Christmas sweepstake on Tory seats: predicted 330.

Karen Danczuk. She just must be. Somehow.

Parents who work in the labour market.

Grown-up Government.






All pollsters.

Most, ahem, pundits.  Including this one, more or less.

The Conservative Party’s private election estimates.

Ed Miliband.

Ed Balls.

Jim Murphy.

Douglas Alexander.

All Conservative future leadership candidates and their teams – who must now stand down. For the moment.

Labour in England.

Labour in Scotland.

Housing Associations.

Tablets of Stone.

Sam Cam – now cursed to two more years in Downing Street. Probably.

Nick Clegg, because his party was smashed.

Vince Cable.

All LibDem women MPs.

Nigel Farage.

Douglas Alexander.

Electoral Reform.

Russell Brand.

David Alexrod.

Martin Freeman. Yes.

Onshore wind.

Stay-at-home mums.

Natalie Bennett.

Boris (because his leadership campaign for 2015 is stymied).

Kevin Maguire.

The Guardian – curse of its election endorsement strikes again.

Blue UKIP.


Gordon Brown.

Dan Hodges (because he now has to streak naked down Whitehall).


Tory Whips (headaches, headaches, headaches).

Tory Rebels (because of Cameron’s win).


And, as ever…Neil Kinnock.

Jury Out

Defence Budget.

Boundary reform.

British Bill of Rights.

Fixed Term Parliament Act.

The deficit.

The Speaker.

Conservative ground war. (Discuss.)