Screen shot 2014-05-25 at 11.57.36First, a health warning: as Lord Ashcroft himself said yesterday, polls are a snapshot, not a prediction.  Repeat after me – sorry, after him. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction…

  • The lowest Conservative to Labour swing is two per cent – in Morecambe and Lunesdale, held by David Morris.  He has been active on this site in pursuing Labour over the failures on its watch at Morecambe Bay hospital.
  • The highest Conservative to Labour swing is eight per – in Amber Valley, held by Nigel Mills.  He has scarcely been inactive, either, having lead a campaign to extend the restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian migration.
  • The highest LibDem total is 19 per cent – in Hampstead and Kilburn, a three way marginal last time round.  On Thursday, Labour “tightened its grip” on Camden Council while the Conservatives made “modest gains”, according to the Ham and High.
  • The highest UKIP total is 30 per cent – in Walsall North.  That’s even higher than the 29 per cent it hits in Thurrock, where it comes in second to Labour, as it does in Walsall North itself, Dudley North and Great Grimsby.
  • The highest Conservative total is 36 per cent – in Stockton South, won by James Wharton in 2010, and in Hendon, won by Matthew Offord in 2010.  (The Tory total rises in the former and falls in the latter above those in the non-constituency and candidate-specific question.)
  • The highest Labour total is 46 per cent in Wolverhampton South-West, won by Paul Uppal in 2010.  (The Tory total is higher than that in the non-constituency and candidate-specific question.)
  • The lowest Conservative total is 22 per cent – in Walsall North and Great Grimsby.  Austin Mitchell in the latter is retiring.  David Winnick in the former has been re-selected, and will be 82 next June.  I don’t exactly see him as a activist-type, constituency-busy MP.
  • The lowest Labour total is 31 per cent – in Thanet South.  With Great Yarmouth,  it was added to the Ashcroft list on the ground that both “are likely to be high on UKIP’s target list”.  The latter is taking enough from Labour to keep the seat Tory were this result repeated on election day.
  • I’ve taken the figures in this piece for the second of the two questions asked, which is constituency and candidate specific.  And repeat: Polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. Polls are a snapshot…

More details at LordAshcroftPolls.coms

> Click here for all of the slides from Lord Ashcroft’s presentation yesterday.

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