Given the base from which the local elections are being fought, it would be pretty remarkable for the Conservatives to gain any councils from Labour. It is almost inevitable that the move will be in the other direction.
But what of the prospects of Conservative gains from the Lib Dems? I have already touched on this, but as it is such an agreeable topic let us return to it.
The Local Government Information Unit have produced a list of 50 councils to watch.
They include three which are of interest due to the possibility of the Conservatives taking power.
Portsmouth: The Lib Dems (23 seats) are in control here but a net gain of four seats by Conservatives (17) would give them the upper hand. Not all council results go with the national swing and some areas buck the trend – the Lib Dems are hoping this will be one of them.
Cheltenham: The Lib Dems hold 25 of the 40 seats, but with half of the seats up for election this May, a Conservative gain cannot be ruled out. If this happened it would signal a bad night for the Lib Dems.
Colchester: The Lib Dems have a two seat advantage over the Conservatives here and will be hoping to hold on to power. It has been a traditional Lib Dem stronghold and they hold the local parliamentary seat so this is a key contest.
There could also be some other places where the Conservatives are a minority administration, but with gains from the Lib Dems could take overall control.
Winchester: This is a hotly contested Lib Dem and Conservative battleground where the Lib Dems and Conservatives each have 27 seats. Given the national polls, the Conservatives will hope to gain outright control.