The Mayor Watch website speculates on the prospects of UKIP getting at least one London Assembly seat in the elections next year. They point out that on current polling UKIP are on 7% in London and that if that was maintained next year and reflected in the turnout for the Mayoral and London Assembly elections then UKIP would break through.
If we had ham we could have ham and eggs – if we had any eggs. I still think UKIP will only really get elected in the London Assembly when the Euro Elections on the same day – as in 2004. I would also be very surprised if the BNP pass the 5% threshold to keep their seat next year.
However UKIP candidates do seem to cropping up more in Council byelections. The general impression is that they split votes from the Conservatives. – although this doesn't appear to have been the case in this Town Council result from Thursday:
SOUTHBOROUGH TOWN COUNCIL (TUNBRIDGE WELLS)
Southborough East and High Brooms ward
Glenn Lester Conservative 238 (39.2%) +1.8%
Labour 187 (30.8%) -12%
Lib Dem 25 (4.1%) -15.5%
UKIP 108 (17.8%) +17.8
Ind 49 (8.1%) +8.1%
CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY 51 VOTES
Swing from Labour to Conservative 6.8%
By the way I'm keen to try and report more Parish Council and Town Council results so please do send them to me.