There were no council byelections last week. But there was an interesting projection of results over the month of February which extrapolating the swings suggest the Conservatives have a lead over Labour of 1.7%. Opinion polls have been indicating Labour ahead of the Conservatives.

The Press Association analysis says:

Analysis of seven comparable results over the month suggests a 1.7% Conservative margin over Labour.

A calculation based on six wards fought both times by all three major parties gives a projected nationwide line-up of: C 39.8%, Lab 34.7%, Lib Dem 15.5%.

Of course if reflected in the local elections in May that margin would still imply heavy Conservative losses. When most of the seats were last fought in 2007 the Conservatives had a 13% lead over Labour.