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An analysis of December's local government results for The Sunday Times by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University suggest that the Conservatives may not secure an overall majority at the next General Election.

The 85,000 votes in 61 contests were totted up to produce a Tory vote share of nearly 38% and vote shares of about 28% for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats. If translated uniformly across the country that would cause Brown to lose 100 MPs but David Cameron would be fifteen seats short of a Commons majority.

LocalVotesTwo immediate reactions:

Eric Pickles is concerned that there be no complacency among Tory activists and he'll welcome the Thrasher/ Rallings analysis as a warning to the whole party as we approach campaign kick off on 4th January.

Tim Montgomerie

46 comments for: Analysis of latest local government results suggests hung parliament is possible

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