An analysis by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University for The Sunday Times suggests Labour losing half their seats in the local elections and falling behind the Lib Dems.

They think the Local Government byelections provide a better indicator than the opinion polls. Their survey of these byelections point to a vote share of 40% for the Conservatives (up 9% on four years ago when the seats were last contested), Labour on 25% (down 9%) and the Lib Dems on 27%.

These figures would indicate outright Tory victory in every county except Derbyshire and Cumbria (which would be under no overall control) and perhaps Cornwall where the Lib Dems may hang on.