The suspicion that a politician is taking them for granted never goes down that well with voters. Indeed, you could argue that dislike of the implied assumption that certain parts of the Tory core vote would stay blue no matter what treatment was dished out to them – embodied by the social care policy – played a crucial part in the Conservatives losing their majority earlier this year.
So it’s noteworthy that Jeremy Corbyn is now publicly predicting he will be strolling into Downing Street within 12 months. In an interview with Grazia he explained that
He thinks ‘there will probably be another election in the next 12 months’ and says he ‘will probably win’.
His previous forecast, of course, was that he would be Prime Minister by Christmas – that hasn’t worked out, but at least he had sufficient remnants of modesty to say it in private at Glastonbury.
The June election certainly went better for Labour than most – including me – expected. In part that came about due to Conservative overconfidence, and in part because Corbyn appeared to be the underdog. If he is now going round predicting his own imminent triumph, what effect might that have?