By Tim Montgomerie
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ConHome keeps warning (eg here, here and here) that the Liberal Democrats will most likely choose an alliance with Labour if the next election results in another minority government situation and the arithmetic makes a Lib/Lab pact feasible. It's likely because (1) the LibDems will want to prove to voters that they are not in any one party's pockets and (2) the LibDems are, at heart, a Left-leaning party.
I wrote about this second factor in Saturday's Daily Mail:
"The fact is [Cameron] knows [Clegg] is the only senior Lib Dem who could have led the party into coalition with the Conservatives. All of Clegg’s three predecessors as leader — Paddy Ashdown, Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell — were men of the Left and would not have countenanced such a deal. Their support for higher income tax, opposition to Britain’s nuclear deterrent and soft policies on crime prove their visceral anti-Tory views. And if Clegg does not survive as party leader, his likely successors are cut from similar cloth. Vince Cable, party president Tim Farron and deputy leader Simon Hughes all favour more taxes, more regulation and more Europe. As for the party’s rank and file, two thirds describe themselves as Left-wing. Their hearts are with Labour."
And to prove my point LibDemVoice has just published a poll which finds that, by 48% to 19%, Nick Clegg's members prefer a post-2015 alliance with Labour rather than any continuing pact with Tories.
Cameron aims for a majority of his own or the Conservatives will probably find themselves out of power.