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Tax 1) National Insurance rise “will harm jobs and families” – according to official impact assessment

“Boris Johnson’s National Insurance increase could result in the breakdown of families and deter companies from hiring new staff and increasing wages, according to the Government’s own analysis. A bombshell impact assessment produced by HM Revenue and Customs for the Treasury warned that one effect of the 1.25 percentage point tax increase “may be an impact on family formation, stability or breakdown as individuals, who are currently just about managing financially, will see their disposable income reduce”. The disclosure comes as several MPs in Red Wall seats said they faced a major backlash from constituents over the move. One MP said they had received angry letters referring to the levy as the “poll tax 2.0″ – a phrase that was also used spontaneously by voters in a focus group in a northern city last week.” – Sunday Telegraph

  • It’s Poll Tax 2.0 – Leader, Sunday Telegraph
  • Where’s our Singapore-on-Thames? Brexit backers feel let down by high-tax PM – Sunday Times
  • April 6th’s the day reality will bite and voters will be hit in the pocket – Mark Harper, Sun on Sunday
  • What happens the next time Johnson turns to voters and begs: Please trust me? – Dan Hodges, Mail on Sunday
  • Voters will need to know they are getting value for money – Leader, Mail on Sunday

>Today: ToryDiary: Snap guide to this session’s Government legislation 11) Subsidy Control Bill

Tax 2) Truss to give warning against further increases

“The Conservatives must fight the expansion of the state and embrace free enterprise or risk making Britain poorer and putting the country on a course of decline, the Trade Secretary will say this week. In a speech that will be seen as a warning against further tax rises and public spending splurges, Liz Truss is expected to call for the party to “face facts”. “The path to economic revival does not lie in retreating and retrenching from the global marketplace, or inexorably growing the size of the state,” Ms Truss will say. “That would leave us poorer, less free and consign us to decline.” Ms Truss’s intervention, in a speech to the Policy Exchange think tank on Tuesday, will reignite speculation about the International Trade Secretary’s opposition to Boris Johnson’s National Insurance rise.” – Sunday Telegraph

  • A short history of tax, the ‘dreadful monster’ Britons have fought for centuries – Julia Hoppit, Sunday Times
  • There is a strong moral case for low taxes. But the Government has lost sight of it – Daniel Hannan, Sunday Telegraph
  • Why such a peculiar and chaotic rush to hit our wallets? – Iain Duncan Smith, Mail on Sunday
  • Johnson’s grip on power just grows stronger – Sunday Times

Tax 3) Ashcroft: You will never fix the NHS by spraying it with cash like a crazed Formula 1 driver with a magnum of Moet

“As things stand, the cold hard reality is that no country in the world is as impressed by our health service as we are, and none has tried to copy it. Though it performs miracles, it also routinely loses patient records; muddles up medicines; duplicates diagnostic tests; pays way over the odds for drugs and medical equipment; and fails to treat patients before it is too late…The trouble is that despite its vast funding, the NHS is hopelessly short of doctors and nurses and far too relaxed in its attitude to taxpayers’ time and money.” – Lord Ashcroft, Mail on Sunday

  • Inquiries into abuse and neglect of adults leap by half at care homes – Sunday Times
  • Frustrated patients pay to see own GP – Sunday Times
  • Calls for Army to ease ambulance waits at A&E – BBC

Tax 4) Colville: The Tories still think of themselves as the Party for lower taxes – despite the reality

“Economists rely a lot on the idea of revealed preferences. You don’t focus on what people say (“I really want to lose weight”), but what they do (eat the cake). And the Tory party’s revealed preference is pretty clear. It does want to lower the tax burden, just as I want to be able to fit into my old gym kit. But somehow it never quite happens….because being the party of low taxes and business is so central to the Tories’ self-image, they too often take it for granted that they actually are, rather than doing the things that might prove it to the rest of the world — such as cutting taxes and removing burdens on business.” – Robert Colvile, Sunday Times

  • This is about inheritance, not the quality of care – Dominic Lawson, Sunday Times
  • Disaster looms unless the Conservative Party rediscovers what it stands for – Steve Baker MP, Sunday Telegraph
  • Why has Boris declared war on Tory voters? – Camilla Tominey, Sunday Telegraph
  • Social care will still be woefully underfunded – Leader, Observer
  • Now, do you believe me? – Peter Hitchens, Mail on Sunday

Coronavirus 1) Jabs for 12- to 15-year-olds “to start in weeks”

“Plans for Covid vaccinations for 12- to 15-year-olds across the UK are to be announced by the government this week, with a mass inoculation programme beginning in schools within two weeks, the Observer has been told. New proposals for a Covid booster programme are also expected to be set out on Tuesday, but it is thought ministers may be backing away from plans for Covid passports in confined settings such as nightclubs amid opposition from some Tory MPs. It is believed that vaccinations for children will begin on 22 September. NHS leaders are understood to have been briefed on the plans after schools were told to be ready to introduce the programme.” – Observer

  • Cases fall by 21 per cent in a week – Mail on Sunday
  • Free tickets to gigs for those getting jabbed in Belfast – BBC

Coronavirus 2) Vaccine passports plans “to be scrapped”

“Boris Johnson will announce this week that he is scrapping plans that would have required vaccine passports for entry to nightclubs, cinemas and sports grounds. On Tuesday, the prime minister will announce plans to try to keep Covid under control over the winter. He will say that he has abandoned the proposed compulsory certification scheme, which would have forced venues to check people’s vaccine status. Johnson tore up the proposals after scientists said vaccinations would be an effective first line of defence against a winter wave of the pandemic. But the move also represents a significant concession to Tory backbench rebels who had complained that enforcing vaccine passports would create a group of second-class citizens.” – Sunday Times

Coronavirus 3) PCR travel tests “will be dropped”

“Double-jabbed travellers will no longer have to take expensive PCR Covid tests when returning to the UK, the Government is poised to announce. Officials are working towards scrapping the requirement for green and amber list countries before the half-term holidays next month, The Mail on Sunday can reveal, providing a huge boost for millions of holidaymakers and the beleaguered travel industry. Travellers will no longer need Covid tests before leaving for Britain, while the unpopular PCR tests currently required on the second day after arrival will be replaced by cheaper lateral flow tests.” – Mail on Sunday

  • Covid Winter Plan for England will be published on Tuesday – BBC
  • Travellers from Wales can soon use private PCR tests – BBC

Coronavirus 4) Draconian powers to be repealed

“Boris Johnson will this week light the touch paper to start a bonfire of Covid regulations. Powers held to shut down swathes of the economy and impose limits on gatherings and events will be repealed. The red tape roll-back is part of a masterplan from the PM, who is desperate to avoid any further lockdowns. The temporary closing or limiting access to schools and powers to detain infectious people under the Coronavirus Act — called draconian by some Tory MPs — are no longer seen as necessary. Downing Street views vaccines as the country’s “first line of defence” as we enter autumn and look to winter.” – The Sun on Sunday

Patel: I’ll make it “unattractive” for migrants to cross Channel

“Priti Patel says it’s her job to make cross-Channel crossings “unattractive” for migrants to prevent them coming here. The Home Secretary says these tactic over the long-term aims to “crush the ability” of organised crime gangs to traffic people over to the UK.Patel praised officials this week as plans are drawn up for vessels to be intercepted and turned back towards France which sparked a diplomatic row. She made the comments in a letter to Border Force officials telling them they have her “full support” as they tackle the growing problem.” – Priti Patel, Sun on Sunday

  • Home Secretary backs medical tests to prove ‘young’ migrants’ real age – Mail on Sunday
  • Labour accuses Patel of breaching ministerial code – Observer

Starmer to publish 14,000 word “mission statement”

“Sir Keir Starmer is to publish a 14,000-word mission statement to Labour members on the eve of the party’s annual conference later this month. The Labour leader’s lengthy essay for the Fabian Society is an attempt to reset his leadership and to answer those who have questioned what he and his party stand for. A source close to Starmer described the contents of the pamphlet as an “intellectualised version” of his conference speech. However, the essay is not expected to include any fresh Labour policy announcements and will focus broadly on the themes of security and opportunity.” – Sunday Times

  • It’s increasingly clear: Labour’s leadership has little idea how to win a political fight – John McDonnell, Observer

MPs to face restrictions on what they can tweet

“A sleaze watchdog will crackdown on outspoken MPs making Twits of themselves online. Major curbs on what politicians can discuss on social media will be examined to ensure the strict code of conduct is up to date. The probe will be carried out by the Office of the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards after a record number of complaints last year. Kathryn Stone, who will lead the investigation wrote, said: “This is an ever-growing issue that cannot be ignored”. In her annual report, she added: “I have been surprised at the way some MPs express their views and opinions on social media.” She said the review will look at MPs communicating with constituents and close gaps on lobby rules, outside employment and acceptance of benefits.” – Sun on Sunday

The Queen and PM send messages of condolence on September 11th anniversary

“The Queen has sent a message to US President Biden marking 20 years since the 11 September attacks, saying her thoughts and prayers are with the victims, survivors and their families. In her message, she also paid tribute to the resilience of the communities who joined together to rebuild. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the terrorists had failed to “shake our belief in freedom and democracy”. After sunset, 67 candles were lit to remember the British victims. Commemorations have been taking place at a memorial garden in Grosvenor Square, London, where a private service of remembrance was held earlier, organised by a support group for victims’ families.” – BBC

News in brief

  • Rosie Duffield to miss Labour conference due to security concerns – Spectator
  • Questions about the new NHS management structure – John Redwood
  • The genius and grace of G K Chesterton – Peter Mullen, Conservative Woman
  • Have the Tories just lost the next election? – Daniel Johnson, The Article
  • Planning laws should not be relaxed – John Rentoul, Independent