Published:

Government to publish HMT analysis of Brexit scenarios today…

“Theresa May will embark on the next phase of selling her Brexit blueprint today as the Treasury releases an analysis of the deal. The document will compare the economic consequences of staying in the EU with other outcomes, including staying in parts of the single market, a Canada-style free-trade agreement and a no-deal scenario. Brexiteers are preparing to challenge figures showing that Britain might be better off with a close relationship. “The reputation of government economics is in the gutter,” a source said. “That must change. It’s time for the chancellor to publish all his assumptions.”” – The Times

  • Forecasts suggest Britain would be £150bn worse of in case of “no deal” – Telegraph

…but not full legal advice on the deal, as was determined by Commons

“Theresa May will defy Parliament by blocking publication of the full legal advice behind her Brexit deal, prompting accusations of a cover-up. Downing Street said a “position statement” will be published on the legality of the deal, rather than the “final and full advice” given to ministers. Brexiteers claimed Mr May was refusing to reveal the advice because it will show that the Cabinet was warned that Mrs May’s deal could leave the UK stuck in a customs union. Number 10 was accused of “ignoring” Parliament  – which voted on the matter two weeks ago.” – Telegraph

  • They’ll publish a position paper instead – Daily Express
  • Labour says this doesn’t comply with terms of vote – Guardian
  • Bone says it sets a “dangerous precedent” – Daily Express

Is May’s deal en route for a “crashing defeat” in the vote?

“… as opponents of her deal scramble to plan for the chaotic aftermath of the meaningful House of Commons vote in less than a fortnight, which she appears likely to lose by a crushing margin. The prime minister will visit a factory near Glasgow and speak to workers and employers about the agreement, telling them: “It is a deal that is good for Scottish employers and which will protect jobs.” Back in Westminster, few MPs believe the controversial package is likely to pass the Commons, despite a charm offensive from Tory whips, who are pressing the argument that none of the alternatives – from a Canada-style trade deal to a second referendum – could command a majority.” – Guardian

  • MPs are considering alternatives – FT
  • Foster says May’s “given up” on getting a good deal – Telegraph
  • May’s allies say alternative could be customs union – Daily Mail 
  • Sturgeon says deal is “unacceptable” and that May is “desperate” – Daily Express
  • Bercow has “prioritised” May’s opponents – The Times
  • Labour MPs say Downing St treated them “like idiots” during WA briefing – Telegraph
  • Johnson joins critics of May’s TV debate plan – The Times
  • Labour pushing for ITV as host – Guardian
  • Latest poll shows public support for deal – Daily Mail

>Today: 

Fallon: This is a bad deal

“We need to take stock now, and consider whether we are acting in the country’s interest. Security co-operation, Gibraltar, fishing rights, the fight against serious crime, the role of the European Court – all these things are important. But in the end, Brexit is a negotiation about trade: how we continue to trade in the European markets and how we reach new free trade agreements with countries across the world. Nobody doubts that the Prime Minister has tried her very best. But neither the Withdrawal Agreement nor the political declaration with which she has returned give us any certainty whatsoever about our future trading relationships.” – Daily Telegraph

Javid implies post-Brexit immigration policy may not be revealed before the vote – and that migration target may be scrapped

“MPs might have to vote on the Brexit deal without knowing details of the future immigration policy, Sajid Javid has said, as he also indicated the planned scheme might abandon the target of keeping net annual migration to the tens of thousands. In a sometimes testy appearance before the home affairs select committee, the home secretary said only that the long-awaited white paper on post-Brexit immigration should arrive before the end of the year. “The government hasn’t set a final publication date for the white paper, but very shortly,” Javid told the cross-party panel when asked when it would arrive. “I’d certainly say in December.”” – Guardian

  • Meanwhile, Home Office to face high court challenge over child citizenship registration fees – Guardian

Hammond and Clark call for softer approach regarding low-skilled EU migrants

“The Cabinet is deeply split over the post Brexit immigration policy as at least three ministers demand Theresa May’s axes a crackdown on low-skilled EU migrants. Chancellor Philip Hammond and Business Secretary Greg Clark are among those who want to soften the policy for fear of damage to the economy. Major industries, particularly agriculture, are dependent on short term, low skilled labour and fear worker shortages when EU free movement ends after Brexit. The Cabinet war has delayed publication of a new policy paper on how the immigration system will work after Brexit. The paper is stuck at No 10 after Home Secretary Sajid Javid proposed pro-business changes to allow workers on temporary visas, the Standard revealed today.” – Daily Mail 

May will speak today of a Brexit that “works for Scotland”

“Theresa May will today promise a Brexit deal that “works for Scotland” and which will “strengthen the Union” as she ventures north of the border to sell her deeply controversial plan for life outside the European Union. The sentiments are in sharp contrast to the SNP Government’s analysis, highlighted in a new report yesterday, that warned how Scots face being more than £1,600 a year worse off outside the EU than inside the EU. Today, the UK Government will publish its own Brexit analysis, covering a “range of different scenarios”. As the Prime Minister prepares to travel this afternoon to a factory near Glasgow to talk to bosses and staff about the merits of the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement, Nicola Sturgeon accused her of “governing by threat” and seeking to impose on Scotland an “unacceptable” Brexit deal, which would make the nation £9 billion poorer by 2030.” – Herald

  • She’ll commit to defending fishermen – Telegraph

She insists the backstop is “intended to be temporary”

“The prime minister has insisted that the controversial Irish border backstop is only intended to be temporary — if it comes in at all. Theresa May was speaking in response to a News Letter question about the controversial backstop, which is strongly opposed by the DUP but which has been incorporated in the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Nigel Dodds told this newspaper after the DUP conference at the weekend that Tory backbench opposition to the backstop was growing, and Arlene Foster told the media yesterday that opposition to that Withdrawal Agreement at Westminster was “coalescing” around the backstop.” – Belfast News Letter

US ambassador Woody Johnson: Britain is the “perfect trading partner” for us

“The United States is ready to get straight to work. A talented group of Americans have been meeting their British counterparts for over a year now to lay the groundwork. The president’s trade representative has already formally notified Congress of our intention to start negotiating. If we seem enthusiastic, it’s because we are. Britain is the perfect trading partner for the United States. We are both countries that are at the top of our game when it comes to business, science and innovation. No other countries come close to winning the number of Nobel Prizes we do. Our universities dominate the world rankings.” – The Times

  • A US deal isn’t so important – Alex Brummer, Daily Mail
  • Trump made it worse for May – Gaby Hinsliff, Guardian

More trade

  • May says it’s going “very well” with the US – FT
  • But that she isn’t “planning” to have talks with Trump at G20 – Daily Mail 
  • Meanwhile, Paterson claims Trump “offered” May an FTA in July – Telegraph
  • WTO gives “provisional support to UK membership” – FT
  • Is there a serious shortage of trade negotiators in the FO…? – Guardian
  • …cuts are proving a problem, there – FT

More Conservatives

  • Gauke pours water on Javid’s knife crime proposals – The Times
  • Hancock is a childish Tigger – John Crace, Guardian
  • Baroness Trumpington’s exciting life – The Sun

>Today: ToryDiary: Hath not a Muslim eyes?

>Yesterday:Video: WATCH: “I certainly didn’t mean that to be on television.” In memory of Baroness Trumpington.

Labour sets out ideas for work policies, including focus on high pay

“Customers of Britain’s 7,000 biggest companies would be given the right to vote on the pay of top executives under plans for a clampdown on boardroom pay being considered by Labour. A report commissioned by Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, calls for an annual binding vote on executive packages to include all stakeholders – including employees and consumers. Other suggestions include scrapping all forms of share options so that executives are paid only in cash, a ban on golden handshakes and punitive fines for directors of companies that persistently fail to pay the minimum wage. The report also proposes that all companies in Britain with more than 250 staff would have to reveal the names of employees paid more than £150,000 a year.” – Guardian

Comment: 

  • Don’t ignore this – Nils Pratley, Guardian

More Labour

News in Brief

  • Don’t forget Russia – Andrew Foxall, CapX
  • The cost of Remain – Matt Kilcoyne, Spectator
  • Our new campaign – Richard Tice, BrexitCentral
  • On environmental short-termism – New Yorker

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