Brexit One: Pizza for breakfast? The Gang of Five prepare to ask May (again) to ask the EU to give the UK the right to quit the backstop.

“Within the next 48 hours five Cabinet Brexiteers – Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Liam Fox, Penny Mordaunt and Chris Grayling – will meet to discuss how they might force the Prime Minister to seek last-minute changes to the Withdrawal Agreement – which has already been locked down with Brussels, according to Downing Street. They believe changes can still be made before an EU summit next Sunday, principally to give Britain a unilateral means of exiting the Northern Ireland “backstop”. If Mrs May refuses (which seems certain) she could face another day of multiple Cabinet resignations this week, which could make her position untenable.” – Sunday Telegraph

Brexit Two: The challenge to the Prime Minister. Goldsmith sends letter to Brady, Cash may have done so too.

“Writing in The Sunday Telegraph, Zac Goldsmith, a Brexiteer, says he would have voted Remain rather than choose Mrs May’s plan and that her departure will “give us the chance of a fresh start”. This newspaper was separately told that Sir Bill Cash, the veteran Eurosceptic, had also submitted a formal declaration of no confidence in the Prime Minister. He declined to comment, saying the process was confidential. But the additional two MPs would bring to 25 the total known to have requested a vote on Mrs May’s leadership, out of a total of 48 required.” – Sunday Telegraph

  • Baker says sack Barwell, Gibb, Robbins – Sunday Times
  • Mundell backs May – Sunday Express
  • Johnson’s backers divided about whether to send in letters – Mail on Sunday
  • Mercer attacks deal but hasn’t sent a letter – Mail on Sunday
  • Three donors for May – Mail on Sunday
  • Survation finds Conservative councillors back May’s leadership by two to one, but are divided almost equally on her deal… – Mail on Sunday
  • …But Barclay’s Association Chairman, Tories on Twitter and ConservativeHome’s survey tell a different story – Sunday Times

Brexit Three: Next Tory Leader manoeuvres. It’s Raab v Johnson among the referendum Leavers, Hunt v Javid among the referendum Remainers. Leaver Davis may back Raab. Remainer Rudd also set to stand.

“The former Brexit Secretary has emerged as front-runner to succeed Theresa May after quitting the Cabinet over the PM’s doomed deal for leaving the EU. He is expected to run with the backing of David Davis, who also previously resigned from the Brexit role. But they will face a tough challenge from ex-Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. Cabinet comeback queen Amber Rudd, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary Sajid Javid will scrap it out to be the Remain candidate.” – Sun on Sunday

  • No, Davis will stand himself, so may Gove to back “Norway option”, so may Greening and Lee. Rees-Mogg could be Johnson’s Chancellor – Sunday Express.
  • Teams Hunt, Javid, Johnson, Raab, Rudd prepare, Mordaunt is canvassing, so is Cox – Sunday Times
  • Guide to the contenders – Sunday Times
  • Downing Street and the Treasury brief against Raab – Mail on Sunday

Brexit Four: Downing Street’s “murder board” shows that it believes May could win the Commons vote on the deal by four, with 35 Labour MPs voting with the Government

“Unless she can reduce the rump of 50 Conservative rebels, she would need 35 Labour MPs to back her plan and the SNP’s 35 MPs to abstain to scrape through by four votes. An insider said: “Our murder board shows the scale of the task ahead. “The next few weeks will involve a lot of cajoling, arm-twisting and putting the case for the deal day and night if we are to stand any chance of delivering a smooth Brexit.” – Sunday on Sunday

Brexit Five: The Sun on Sunday: Bow to the Gang of Five and renegotiate your deal

“Whatever the merits of her draft plan, the Prime Minister has to acknowledge that this is not what many voters wanted when they opted for Brexit. Her resilience and commitment to the job are not in question. Indeed the contrast between her sense of duty and the incoherent warblings of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party could not be clearer. But the Prime Minister must give Brexiteers in the Cabinet the chance to shape the political declaration outlining our future relations with the European Union. She needs to redraw the plan and extract more concessions to get a genuine two-way relationship. Only then can she attempt to get the House of Commons to back her deal.” – Editorial

  • No, the Conservative Party must back the Prime Minister – Mail on Sunday Editorial
  • No, she really must go back and get more concessions  – Sunday Telegraph
  • “Mrs May would say having done the hard bit, she should enjoy her own sunlit uplands. Voters admire her tenacity, if nothing else. But while the time for change is not now, the nation needs something, or rather someone, truly inspirational to cheer on.” – Sunday Times Editorial
  • Why I have no confidence in her – Zac Goldsmith, Sunday Telegraph
  • These self-indulgent, petulant and duplicitous Tory MPs – Dan Hodges, Mail on Sunday
  • May has dignity and integrity, a quiet, unshowy, resolute and very English sort of dogged courage – Peter Hitchens, Mail on Sunday
  • She threatens to neutralise Brexit, disable our sovereignty and obliterate the Tory party. Her backbenchers have little to lose by dumping her – Quentin Letts, Sunday Telegraph
  • It’s her job to take the blame – Andrew Gimson, Financial Times
  • Guess who we need on the list for new Conservative leader? Cameron! – Steve Hilton, Sunday Times
  • May, the new Thatcher – Adam Boulton, Sunday Times
  • Her deal means a Black Hole Brexit – Martin Howe, Sunday Telegraph
  • It would block a trade deal with America – Owen Paterson, Sunday Express
  • It would keep us tied to the EU – Janet Daley, ,Sunday Telegraph
  • This deal is a betrayal – Suella Braverman, Sunday Telegraph
  • I oppose this deal – Ranil Jaywardena, Sunday Express
  • Labour’s Brexit divisions – Stephen Bush, Sunday Times
  • P.S: There’ll be a recession if this isn’t sorted soon – Jeremy Warner, Sunday Telegraph

May’s deal, party rupture or both? Whatever the combination may be, Labour push ahead of the Conservatives with Opinium…

“Labour has opened up a three-point lead over the Tories as Conservative Leave supporters appear to be deserting Theresa May’s party in droves, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Compared with a month ago, the Tories have dropped five points to 36% while Labour has gained three to stand on 39%. The Liberal Democrats have fallen by one point to 7%, while Ukip has gone up two to 8%. Opinium found that the Tory decline was primarily a result of Leave supporters deserting the party. Last month (on 11 October) 59% of Leave supporters said they would vote Conservative.” – Observer

…And Comres

“A Sunday Express ComRes poll of 2,000 adults taken last week revealed that Conservative support dropped by three points to 36 per cent, with Labour on 40 per cent. The same poll revealed support increasing for the anti-EU Ukip, up to nine per cent from seven. Meanwhile, an Opinium survey has shown support for the Tories drop five points to 36 per cent, while Labour climbed two to 39, and Ukip rose two to eight per cent.” – Sunday Express

Other Brexit news and comment

  • The fishing stand-off: “the UK has limited itself to a promise to negotiate on the issue in good faith with a view to reaching a deal before the end of the transition in December 2020, setting the stage for complex talks on access and fishing quotas as part of the broader negotiations on the EU-UK future trade agreement” – Sunday Times
  • Barnier to lock Britain out of database – Sunday Expresss
  • Army planners ready for No Deal – Sunday Times
  • Farage “distances himself from Banks” – Sunday Times
  • The challenge for shipping – Nus Ghani, Sunday Express
  • Bridges warns of a constitutional crisis – Observer
  • Davis talks free trade in America – Mail on Sunday
  • Cadwalladr latest – Observer

> Today:

> Yesterday:

McDonnell shifts towards second referendum

“John McDonnell has admitted that a second referendum is more likely than a general election amid claims that he is warming to the idea of a second vote. Labour’s official policy is to press for a general election if the Commons rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal in a “meaningful vote”, before considering the option of a so-called “people’s vote”. Yet the shadow chancellor conceded yesterday that a general election “could prove difficult” because of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which allows for an early election only if two-thirds of MPs vote in favour.” – Sunday Times

  • Views from Flint’s Don Valley – Sunday Times
  • Harman blasts NHS treatment of autistic children – Mail on Sunday
  • Peterborough Labour MP speeding case latest – Sun on Sunday
  • Milne and Murphy prepare for life after Corbyn – Mail on Sunday
  • Sturgeon says Scotland will be put at an economic disadvantage – Sunday Times

News in Brief

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