Campaigning resumes. The polls show a move to Remain. YouGov’s explanation? Economic anxieties, not Jo Cox’s death, drove the change.

You Gov: Remain 44 per cent, Leave 43 per cent

Opinion Poll graphic“A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times puts “remain” on 44 per cent, one point ahead, after recent polls showing “leave” in the lead…YouGov said the bounce for “remain” was not a reaction to the killing of the Labour MP Jo Cox but due to growing concern about the economic effects of Brexit. A third of people (33 per cent) now think their personal finances will be hurt, up from 23 per cent a fortnight ago.” – Sunday Times (£)

Survation: Remain 45 per cent, Leave 42 per cent

“A Survation poll for The Mail On Sunday found Remain had opened up a three-point lead in the wake of the Killing of the Labour MP Jo Cox…Today’s Survation poll was gathered on Friday and Saturday as the nation mourned Mrs Cox and showed Remain on 45 per cent with Leave on 42 per cent.” –  Mail on Sunday

Opinium: Remain 44 per cent, Leave 44 per cent

“The final Opinium/Observer poll before referendum day on Thursday puts both sides on 44 per cent, with 10 per cent saying they are undecided. The online survey of more than 2,000 people was taken between last Tuesday and Friday, with 80 per cent of the polling conducted before the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox, which led to the suspension of all campaigning.” – Observer

  • ComRes finds that 44 per cent would be ‘delighted’ if Britain voted to Leave, and that 28 per cent would feel the same if it’s Remain – Independent on Sunday
  • YouGov for Good Morning Britain finds 44 per cent for Leave, 42 per cent for Remain. BMG finds Remain on 46 per cent and Leave on 43 per cent – Sunday Telegraph

In public, moves to prop up Cameron. In private, leadership contest preparations.  Boris talks to his team. Crabb on manoeuvres. Support for May as a Stop Boris candidate. Pressure on Gove to stand.

CRABB Stephen“Mr Johnson and fellow Leave campaigner Michael Gove are to write to the Prime Minister pledging to stay loyal to him even if the referendum results in Brexit. They intend to release the letter when the polls close at 10pm on Thursday to distance themselves from any attempt by rebel Tory MPs to trigger a leadership challenge against the Prime Minister. The letter is designed to show that even if Britain votes to leave the EU, Mr Johnson and Mr Gove believe Mr Cameron should stay in No 10 to handle the exit talks with the EU and prevent a political crisis in the UK.” – Mail on Sunday

  • Crabb on manoeuvres, supported by Davidson, Hunt and Wright.
  • Leave MPs want Osborne out of the Cabinet…
  • …And Remain MPs want to stop Boris getting in it.
  • Boris met his leadership campaign team last week.
  • Support for May as a Stop Boris candidate.
  • Fox may stand.
  • His friends want Gove to run.

– All in Tim Shipman Sunday Times (£) focus

The campaign

  • Labour to spearhead campaign in final days – Sunday Express
  • Cameron preparing policy blitz post-referendum to help ward off leadership challenge – Sunday Express
  • Claim that Andrew Bridgen was the MP who said that Cameron should be stabbed “in the front” – Mail on Sunday
  • Agriculture Commissioner campaigning for Remain – Sunday Express
  • Guthrie switches from Remain-to-Leave follow-up – The Sun on Sunday
  • Farage urges voters to believe in Britain –  Sunday Express
  • Boris says there are four days to save the EU from itself – Sunday Express
  • Blair, Heseltine, Clegg: grandees for Remain – Observer
  • Meanwhile, in Witney, Cameron’s constituents are unconvinced by Remain – Independent on Sunday
  • Realists and idealists clash in Brussels over federalism – Sunday Times (£)
  • Bright Blue says: end free movement – Sun on Sunday
  • Voters unconvinced by scare tactics – The Observer
  • How the result will emerge – The Observer

Cameron: Don’t take the risk of leaving

CAMERON Remain“So ask yourself: have I really heard anything – anything at all – to convince me that leaving would be the best thing for the economic security of my family? Is walking away really in keeping with the important, influential country that Britain has always been? Is leaving going to build the kind of open, compassionate country I want my children and grandchildren to grow up in? And if you’re not sure, don’t take the risk of leaving. If you’re not one hundred per cent persuaded, there’s only one place to put your cross. If you don’t know, don’t go. Instead, vote to remain on June 23rd.” – David Cameron, Sunday Telegraph

Gove: Follow your heart, vote for hope

GOVE union flag T-shirt“I am hopeful that our arguments will win,” he says. “The inference of the Remain campaign is that we can’t stand on our own two feet. I disagree. That’s at the essence of democracy. That’s the most precious thing to me.” The Prime Minister himself told all MPs earlier this year, “follow your heart” and Britain could be “a very special nation” after Brexit, Mr Gove concludes.  “There are great things that Britain can do in the future as a progressive beacon. By voting Leave, we have that opportunity,” he says. “People should vote for democracy and Britain should vote for hope.” – Michael Gove interview, Sunday Telegraph

The Sunday newspapers declare

Other comment and interviews

> Today:

> Yesterday:

Mair is charged with murder. Asked his name in court, he replies: “My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain”

Screen Shot 2016-06-19 at 09.01.05“Thomas Mair, 52, from Birstall, West Yorkshire, appeared at Westminster magistrates court in London to be charged with murder, grievous bodily harm, possession of a firearm with intent to commit an indictable offence, and possession of an offensive weapon. Asked to confirm his name, Mair told the court: “My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain.” The judge subsequently asked the defendant’s lawyers to confirm that his name was Thomas Mair, which they did.” – Observer

Niall Ferguson: Two atrocities – each deserves to be met with sorrow, but only one with fear

“Though the crimes are morally indistinguishable, we need to distinguish between the threats they represent. As an ideology, fascism is as lethal to human freedom as Islamic extremism. Today, however, the scale of the neo-fascist threat is significantly smaller than the scale of the Islamist threat. There is no state in the world that pursues as a matter of policy the ideas of Britain First or the National Alliance, a white supremacist organisation with which Mair is said to have had contact. Nor am I aware of any territory under the control of these or similar groups. By contrast, the goals of Islamic extremists are supported to various degrees by several states, and the self-styled Islamic State controls parts of Iraq and Syria.” – Sunday Times (£)

Tristram Hunt: This referendum could tear the voting coalition that is Labour apart

HUNT Tristram“This Thursday threatens to become a broader reckoning by many Labour voters on a decade of stagnating wages and the aftermath of the 2008 crash. The debate surrounding Brexit has pitted cosmopolitan Britain against parts of the country wrestling with the effects of globalisation. Coalfield communities, coastal towns and former manufacturing districts are more likely to vote to leave while the graduate classes in university towns and large cities want to remain. That, in essence, is the Labour family: Cambridge and Redcar, Brighton and Merthyr Tydfil. The ruthless, binary nature of a referendum has threatened to split the liberal-cum-Labourist alliance apart.” – Sunday Times (£)

David Davis: We cannot shut MPs off from the people who elect them

“I worry that in the calls for ‘something to be done’ we accidentally dilute or damage something that is central to our democracy, namely the accessibility of our Members of Parliament. Few countries, even democracies, have the level of sheer unfettered access to their representatives that we have in Britain. The link to our constituencies is fundamental to the operation of our Parliament, and that link is much more than some dry constitutional convention.” – Mail on Sunday

News in Brief

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