Referendum 1): Brexit would cause year long recession claims Osborne

recessiontimes“Britain would enter a year-long recession if the country voted to leave the European Union, George Osborne will say today. The chancellor will urge voters not to choose what he describes as a “DIY recession” in next month’s referendum, which he said could leave the economy at least 3.6 per cent lower than forecast in two years.He will also warn that the British economy could drop by up to 6 per cent after two years if Brexit negotiations with other countries failed and tariffs were introduced.” – The Times(£)

  • Brexit would put our economy in serious danger – David Cameron and George Osborne Daily Telegraph
  • Charlie Bean approved Treasury analysis – FT
  • Brexit supporter Sarah Wollaston criticises Vote Leave campaign – The Times(£)
  • ‘Missing’ EU graduates owe £89m in loans – Daily Mail
  • NHS chief says leaving would mean loss of staff – The Times(£)
  • Greece passes fresh austerity measures – Daily Telegraph
  • EU forces Britain into whalemeat trade says Eustace – The Times(£)
  • Will fists fly at the Conservatives Summer ball? – Daily Mail
  • Helena Bonham Carter says we can keep our identity within the EU – Daily Express
  • Tampon Tax still not scrapped – Independent
  • Redwood warns of growing threat to the City from EU red tape – Daily Express



Referendum 2) Cameron and Mordaunt clash over Turkey

“David Cameron has hit back at one of his own ministers over her claim Britain would have “no say” over whether Turkey joined the EU. The Prime Minister said such a move would happen “in about the year 3000”, rejecting a new warning from the Vote Leave campaign that “Turkey (population 76 million) is joining the EU”. And Mr Cameron said Penny Mordaunt, the Armed Forces minister, was “absolutely wrong” to say the UK does not have a veto on whether Turkey is allowed to accede to the bloc.” – Independent


Referendum 3): Raab warns Remain against trying to silence immigration debate

RAAB Dominic headshot“A Conservative minister has accused remain campaigners of attempting to silence the debate on immigration, warning that failure to address people’s concerns would simply fuel the emergence of a “nasty politics” on the far-right. In an interview with the Guardian, Dominic Raab hit out at Tory colleagues including Lord Michael Heseltine and Sir John Major, who he said were starting to sound like “the elite saying we can’t talk about immigration”.” – The Guardian

Referendum 4): Hilton says we should Vote Leave

“I’m a fan of global trade and a champion of the private sector. But when those good things are accompanied by centralisation, the result is an unhealthy concentration of economic and political power that is fundamentally hostile to my belief in individual freedom and social responsibility, and my confidence in human nature and the good that will come when individuals, families and neighbourhoods work together without a far-away administrator’s master-plan. A decision to leave the EU is not without risk, but I believe it is the ideal and idealistic choice for our times. Taking back power from arrogant, unaccountable, hubristic elites and putting it where it belongs. In people’s hands.” Steve Hilton Daily Mail

  • Scruffy guru who put Dave on the path to No 10 – Daily Mail
  • Case for Brexit by a man who really knows – Leader Daily Mail

Referendum 5) Boris says future generations will find it hard to say why anyone voted to stay

BORIS Leave declaration“To no one’s very great surprise, Project Fear turned out to be a giant hoax. The markets were calm. The pound did not collapse.  …The British felt suddenly and unexpectedly galvanised – with a renewed confidence in their democracy, and excitement about the new opportunities for global trade and partnership. The Brexit vote was followed by a powerful campaign for reform in Europe, and a widespread euphoria that at least one population had plucked up the courage to say that the emperor had no clothes. After only a few years it became increasingly hard to find anyone who would confess to having voted Remain.” – Boris Johnson Daily Telegraph

Other comment

  • Cameron won’t purge Brexit rebels but there will be a reckoning – Matthew d’Ancona The Guardian
  • Three key reasons why we must vote out – Trevor Kavanagh The Sun
  • I’m optimistic we’ll back Brexit – Nigel Farage The Times(£)
  • Keep it civil – The Sun Says
  • The City would suffer if we left the EU – Mark Boleat City AM
  • Brexiters are the optimists – Matt Ridley The Times(£)
  • Loss of control over our borders means a lack of protection from crime – Leader Daily Express

Cameron admits Tories may have broken election spending rules

“The PM has admitted for the first time that the Tories may have fallen foul of election spending rules. A bitter row is raging over whether the party illegally dodged cash caps in individual seats by filing bills from its battlebus as national expenses. It has left the Conservatives facing a series of police probes across the country. Yesterday David Cameron said that he still does not believe the party have done “anything wrong”.” – The Sun

Corbyn wants return of Ed Miliband

Miliband coffee“Jeremy Corbyn is wooing Ed Miliband to return to the shadow cabinet, in a move that will cause bitter divisions within the party. The former Labour leader, who presided over the party’s worst election result since 1987, is privately advising Mr Corbyn on how to lead the Labour party, paving the way for a return to frontline politics. Mr Miliband is offering regular “counsel and advice” to his successor, including how not to repeat his mistakes and ways to handle a hostile media.” – The Times(£)

  • Labour activists in 2015 “were like middle class Ryan Air passengers” – The Guardian

Postal votes to decide tight Austrian election

“Postal ballots will decide Austria’s presidential election after polling station results from Sunday’s vote gave the far-right candidate a slender lead. Norbert Hofer of the Freedom Party was slightly ahead of his rival, Alexander Van der Bellen, the interior ministry said on Sunday. If elected, Mr Hofer would be the first far-right head of state in the EU. A key campaign issue was Europe’s migrant crisis, which has seen asylum-seeker numbers soar.” – BBC

  • Age of anxiety – Leader The Times(£)
  • Hofer brings echo of the Nazis – Dominic Sandbrook Daily Mail
  • Conservatives win elections in Cyprus – Reuters

SNP’s Deputy Leader resigns

DAVIDSON Ruth new“SNP MP Stewart Hosie has said he will step down as the party’s deputy leader in the autumn. His announcement comes after newspapers reported he had been involved in an affair with journalist Serena Cowdy. In a letter to party leader Nicola Sturgeon, he apologised for “any hurt and upset I have caused to friends, family and colleagues”.” – BBC

  • Scottish Conservative Leader Ruth Davidson is engaged to marry her girlfriend Jen Wilson – The Sun

Welsh Government abandon plans to prohibit e-cigarettes

“Plans to ban e-cigarettes in some public places will be dropped from Wales’ public health bill, the first minister has said. It failed to pass on the last day of the previous assembly after opposition from Plaid Cymru. Carwyn Jones told BBC Radio Wales’ Sunday Supplement the bill would be tabled again without the e-cigs ban.” – BBC

Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows

TRUMP Live“Republicans have rallied behind Donald Trump in the weeks since he effectively clinched his party’s presidential nomination, helping him narrow Democrat Hillary Clinton’s once double-digit lead to just 3 percentage points, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows. Mrs. Clinton leads the New York businessman, 46% to 43%, in a test matchup between the two likely nominees, the poll finds. That represents a much tighter margin than her 11-percentage-point lead in April and marks the first time in Journal/NBC News polling this year that her support has dropped below 50% in a contest with Mr. Trump.” – Wall Street Journal

Children in care six times more likely to have a criminal record

“Half the children serving time in youth custody come from foster or residential care, according to a review which says it is tragic that the care system fails so many youngsters. The review found that a child in care was six times more likely to be cautioned or convicted of a crime than other children, and criticises residential care workers and foster carers who call the police after minor incidents.” – The Times(£)

Heath: Aiming for equality hurts the poor

HEATH Allister“The 4.6m people who earn enough to pay the 40p tax rate contributed £66.2bn in income tax, a massive chunk of the total. The more people earn, the more tax they pay, and the better the state of the public finances. So forget about inequality. The real challenge is the lack of opportunity facing millions on the lower rungs of the labour market, the sluggish pay rises enjoyed by the middle and the fact that we no longer like hosting top-earners in this country. Simple, really.” – Allister Heath Daily Telegraph

Worstall: Driverless cars will kill off public transport

“High speed rail is also a dead technology: why worry about 30 minutes off the time to Birmingham if you can travel in a wifi equipped solitary vehicle? As the current incarnation of Uber shows, we just love point-to-point on demand transport if it’s cheap enough. Kill off the cost of the driver with an AI and autonomous vehicles will be price comparable with the bus. It’s a complete no brainer: public transport systems will be eviscerated by the driverless car.” – Tim Worstall City AM

Montgomerie: The scandal of Iraq being abandoned is ignored

Tim Montgomerie 18-03-16“Islamic State filled the security vacuum that Obama created, while American soldiers are countering the barbarians who murdered 200 Iraqis in sectarian bombings in Baghdad a week ago. ..Answering the big question posed by Obama’s premature withdrawal from Iraq — do the free world’s current leaders have the grit to persevere in the fight against Islamic militancy? — doesn’t, of course, need a grand report. The answer is no.” Tim Montgomerie The Times(£)

News in brief

  • Al-Qaeda ‘planning major terror attack against West’ from Afghanistan –Daily Telegraph
  • Deadline for Tata steel bidders – BBC
  • Left wing report challenges Land Registry privatisation – The Guardian
  • Iraq PM announces Falluja assault – BBC
  • Boris gets a £72,000 golden goodbye from City Hall – The Sun
  • Families of soldiers murdered in Northern Ireland win inquiry fight – The Times(£)
  • Oil price could fall to $25 dollars a barrel – Daily Telegraph