EU 1) Leave camp has slim lead among Conservative MPs

EU Exit‘Open Europe, a think tank pushing for reform in Europe, has gathered data from public statements, Commons votes and other sources to work out where each of the 330 Conservative MPs stands and put them into five categories. They found that 22, including Sir Bill Cash and Peter Bone, were “firmly out” and would vote to leave the EU no matter what. Another 47, including Liam Fox and Anne-Marie Trevelyan, were described as “leaning out”. On the other side, 14 MPs were “firmly in”, meaning they would stay regardless of the renegotiation.’ – The Times (£)

>Today: ToryDiary: Should Britain leave the EU? Come and hear Steve Baker at ConHome’s Conservative Conference fringe meeting

>Yesterday: ToryDiary: Lord Lawson joining Conservatives for Britain strengthens the campaign group – and the Outists

EU 2) Nelson: Might Osborne back Leave to secure No 10?

‘Labour voters may well end up joining forces with the many Tory activists, three quarters of whom are expected to campaign for an “out” result. And should Boris Johnson end up leading a triumphant “out” campaign, he would be perfectly positioned to ask the same Tory activists to vote for him as party leader. We could be just two years away from a Boris-run Britain…Mr Osborne does have an alternative. He can return from Brussels saying that tried his best but, in the end, they would not offer Britain a good deal – so, with a heavy heart, he would have to recommend an “out” vote. For this, he’d need plenty wiggle room. If he’s serious about No 10, now is the time to find it.’ – Fraser Nelson, Daily Telegraph

  • Stop giving money to Brussels and spend it in the UK – Dan Hannan MEP, The Sun (£)
  • Leading City figure says there’s nothing to fear from leaving the EU – FT
  • There’ll be 20 fringe events on Brexit in Manchester – Bloomberg
  • Tories warned to hide conference passes from angry protesters – Daily Telegraph

Who should be the next Tory leader? Tories want Osborne – but voters want Boris

boris-johnson‘The race to replace David Cameron intensified today as Boris Johnson emerged as the voters’ favourite to become Tory leader. The Prime Minister has vowed to quit before 2020 with Downing Street today forced to deny that he leave as early as spring 2019. Chancellor George Osborne has emerged as a frontrunner among Tories to seize the top job but a new IpsosMORI poll shows Mr Johnson is by far the favourite choice of all voters.’ – Daily Mail

>Today: ToryDiary: From White Van George to Emperor Osborne

>Yesterday: ToryDiary: The Cabinet: Who’s up, down…and likely to be out

London Mayoral selection result announced today

‘Zac Goldsmith is expected to be confirmed today as Conservative candidate for London mayor in a development that places Heathrow expansion plans in fresh doubt…Mr Goldsmith has faced competition from Andrew Boff, a London Assembly member, Syed Kamall, the MEP, and Stephen Greenhalgh, one of the capital’s seven deputy mayors. While the potential candidates have been campaigning to win the primary, they were put forward by an internal panel.’ – The Times (£)

>Yesterday: ToryDiary: London Mayoral Conservative candidate poll. Goldsmith’s lead is up. The primary result will be announced tomorrow.

GPs offered cash bonuses not to refer people to hospitals

NHS‘Family doctors are being paid thousands of pounds for cutting the numbers of patients they refer to hospital, an investigation has found. Cancer patients are among those covered by incentive schemes that reward surgeries for not sending patients for consultations with specialists, prompting condemnation by doctors who say that care is at risk.’ – The Times (£)

Halfon launches organisation for Tory trade unionists

‘The Conservative party is launching a new organisation to represent trade unionists who have Tory sympathies, it has said. Robert Halfon, the Conservatives’ deputy chairman, said his party was now “the party of working people” and that “militant” union leaders were putting workers’ off existing structures. “We want to provide a voice for Conservative-minded trade unionists and moderate trade unionists and this week we will announcing a new organisation in the Conservative party called the Conservative Workers and Trade Unionists movement and that is going to be a voice for Conservative trade unionists.”’ – The Independent

Syria 1) Harrington: Resettling refugees won’t sap councils’ finances

Border‘The first 12 months of a refugee’s resettlement costs are fully funded by central government using the international aid budget. To ensure that local authorities can plan ahead and continue to respond to the overwhelmingly generous response of the British people, we will also provide additional funding to assist with costs incurred in future years. We are working closely with the Local Government Association on how this will operate.’ – Richard Harrington MP, The Times (£)

Syria 2) Russian planes bomb US-backed rebels

‘Russian warplanes bombed a training camp belonging to US-trained rebels in Syria yesterday as an array of regional rivals threatened to escalate the conflict. Iran is believed to have sent hundreds of fresh troops to Syria to join a ground offensive against anti-Assad rebels.’ – The Times (£)


Charles Moore discusses the latest instalment of his Thatcher biography

ThatcherNoTurningBack‘”She knew that she had no fallback. If a normal Tory politician screws it all up he won’t be on the scrapheap; he can still be part of the gang. The penalty for failure will be low. With her, it would be all or nothing. If she wasn’t on top, she was out. And that would be the end of the Thatcher experiment, the end of her. She was very conscious of that and it made her strive to attain all the time.” He suggests this outsider complex, laced with fear, is what made her so unpleasant to Cabinet colleagues – “like everyone’s mother in a bad temper”, as one of them put it.’ – Daily Telegraph

McLoughlin reinstates speed camera rules

‘Furious Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin last night demanded councils come clean about where they hide their speed cameras – in a bumper victory for the Sun. Irate Ministers read the riot act after our damning revelations that cops and councils are flouting guidelines and setting up unmarked Gatso traps. Amid complete chaos in the Department for Transport over official policy, road chiefs re-issued a code that instructs highway authorities how drivers should be properly warned about Gatsos up ahead.’ – The Sun (£)

  • Review cameras and then scrap unnecessary sites – The Sun Says (£)

Corbyn’s next internal battle: tuition fees

CORBYN Jeremy‘Jeremy Corbyn will open a new front in his battle with his shadow cabinet as he tries to force through a campaign pledge to abolish all tuition fees. During his leadership campaign, which saw him heavily backed by young supporters, Mr Corbyn promised to scrap fees and restore student grants by raising £10 billion in tax. Members of Labour’s shadow cabinet made clear last night, however, that his pledge would not automatically be adopted but would be subject to the party’s policy-making process.’ – The Times (£)

  • He has the worst approval rating of any Opposition leader on record – The Sun (£)
  • Labour leader promises ‘dour’ fightback in Scotland – The Guardian
  • If he wins, let’s move to China, says Lord Sugar – Daily Mail
  • Hooray for Corbynomics – Martin Wolf, FT
  • Cable recounts Gordon Brown’s ‘bizarre’ 5am phone calls – The Times (£)
  • Mosley funded Tom Watson’s Deputy Leadership campaign – The Times


>Yesterday: Benedict Rogers on Comment: Corbyn is right about the importance of human rights in foreign policy

Productivity grows at the fastest rate since 2011

‘Productivity in the UK rose at its fastest pace for four years over the spring in a much-needed boost to Britain’s recovery. The Office for National Statistics said output per hour worked grew by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of the year after years in the doldrums. It was the biggest increase since 2011 and means Britain is now more productive than it was when the financial crisis struck.’ – Daily Mail

  • Just 5,000 acres of green belt approved for housebuilding – Daily Mail
  • Don’t neglect small towns in the South, says Gill Hornby – Daily Mail
  • Manchester isn’t the North – Newcastle should be the heart of the powerhouse – David Skelton, Daily Telegraph
  • Sheffield is next on the list – The Guardian

News in Brief

  • Ten killed in US college shooting – Daily Mail
  • Blair’s last message to Gaddafi – The Sun (£)
  • The BBC’s desperation to hang onto Peston – The Times (£)
  • The man who owned Google for a minute – Daily Mail
  • The Uber regulations are bizarre – FT Leader
  • Archaeologists think they may have found Queen Nefertiti – The Times (£)
  • Down with the plastic bag tax – Jemima Lewis, Daily Telegraph
  • Now I wish no-one knew who I was, bemoans Ronnie Pickering – Daily Mail