Polling Day. Final Forecasts. Most go with the Conservatives to win more seats than Labour. But if so, will Cameron be able to form a government?


Elections Etc:

Conservative: 285 Labour: 262 Liberal Democrat: 25 SNP: 53 Plaid Cyrmu: 3 UKIP: 3 Green: 1 Other: 1

Election Forecast:

Conservative: 281 Labour: 266 Liberal Democrat: 27 SNP: 51 Plaid Cyrmu: 4 UKIP: 1 Green: 1 Other: 8

May 2015:

Conservative: 273 Labour: 268 Liberal Democrat: 28 SNP: 56 UKIP: 2 Green: 1 Other: 22


Conservative: 273 Labour: 273 Liberal Democrat: 27 SNP: 52 UKIP: 3 Green: 1 Other: 21

Polling Observatory:

Conservative: 285 Labour: 265 Liberal Democrat: 24 SNP: 49 UKIP: 3 Other: 6

And Cameron extends his lead as preferred Prime Minister as Britain goes to the polls…

“A quarter of voters say they could change their minds in polling booths today as the most unpredictable General Election race for a generation goes down to the wire. An exclusive eve-of-election poll for the Daily Mail by ComRes puts the Conservatives just a point ahead of Labour, though David Cameron has extended a huge lead over Ed Miliband as voters’ preferred prime minister. Some 52 per cent of voters say they would prefer Mr Cameron to continue in Downing Street, with 31 per cent favouring Mr Miliband.” – Daily Mail

  • Prime Minister warns that voters have 24 hours to save Britain – The Sun (£)
  • Tory leader cautions voters not to do something they’ll regret – Daily Telegraph
  • This is the big one, says Cameron at journey’s end – The Times (£)
  • Gruelling final tours for party leaders – The Sun (£)
  • Leaders fire up supporters with final rallies – Daily Mail
  • Expect the unexpected on a night of few sure things – The Times (£)
  • Marginal battles spiced up by 4m tactical votes – The Times (£)
  • Your hour by hour guide to election night – Daily Mail


  • Hi-viz afterglow lingers as Dave gets one last treat – Ann Treneman, The Times (£)
  • On Cameron’s 36 hour marathon – Quentin Letts, Daily Mail
  • This tedious campaign would have been comic if it weren’t so tragic – Michael Deacon, Daily Telegraph
  • Hi-viz jackets for a low-viz campaign – Matthew Engel, Financial Times



…as palace confirms Queen will deliver his speech

Queen's Speech“The Queen will be thrust centre stage if David Cameron tries to hang on to power after the election without the backing of enough MPs. The Times can reveal that Buckingham Palace has had a change of heart in recent days and decided that Her Majesty will deliver the Queen’s Speech — which sets the agenda for her government — whatever the outcome of the election. The palace had voiced fears that her reputation would be tarnished should Mr Cameron try to put forward a Queen’s Speech before he could guarantee the backing of enough MPs to govern. It had suggested that the Queen might stay away from the event, planned for May 27 in the House of Lords, in case the speech was voted down in the Commons.” – The Times (£)

>Today: ToryDiary: Reasons to be Tory 14) Sheridan Westlake. And a bunch of other people you’ve probably never heard of.

>Yesterday: Dominic Raab in Comment: Let’s not throw away this chance to build an Opportunity Society  

Tories could govern without Scottish MPs

“David Cameron has thrown down the gauntlet to Nicola Sturgeon by insisting that he would have a democratic mandate to govern in Scotland if he wins the general election with no MPs north of the Border. In an exclusive Scottish eve-of-poll interview with the Telegraph, the Prime Minister rejected Ms Sturgeon’s claim that a UK Government would only be “legitimate” if it had the support of Scottish MPs. With opinion polls suggesting that the SNP is on course to win all but one of the 59 Scottish constituencies, including the Tories’ only seat, he said that Scotland has two governments but Thursday’s election will decided on a UK-wide basis. Mr Cameron said the SNP surge was a “wake-up call” for all the Unionist parties, which he said now face a major rebuilding job in Scotland.” – Daily Telegraph

Growth lift for the Chancellor

OSBORNE red and blue“The UK economy could grow by 0.8% in the next couple of months according to new research – in good news for the Chancellor. A big boost from Britain’s service sector – from IT companies to hotels – is behind the good news, as the sector hit an eight-month high in April. It comes as Office for National Statistics research found unemployment fell at the fastest rate for forty years in the first part of this year and part-time hours are at historic highs. The UK economy is now 4% higher than pre-recession levels as voters go to the polls.” – The Sun (£)

  • Osborne’s greatest moment in office – Daily Mail
  • What Britain’s next chancellor cannot know – Chris Giles, Financial Times

Javid claims Lady Thatcher told him he would ‘protect our great island’

“One of the Tories’ brightest rising stars has given an extraordinary account of the moment Margaret Thatcher said it would fall to him to ‘protect our great island’. Culture Secretary Sajid Javid, the first Muslim MP to reach the Cabinet, met the former prime minister at a Conservative Party fundraiser in his late twenties. ‘I was standing in a group of five or six when she was brought over and introduced to us all. And, no kidding, she just ignored everyone and looked at me and held my hand in both hers, and stared me in the face,’ Mr Javid told the Daily Mail. ‘And then she said, “Sajid!” and I said, “Yes”, and she said, “Sajid, you will protect our great island. You will protect our great island!” And I said, “Yes I will.” And then she let go of my hand and walked off.” – Daily Mail

>Yesterday: Bishop Eric Brown in Comment: What really happened when Sajid Javid addressed our Election Assembly

Eco-warriors’ campaign of harassment against Leslie

LESLIE Charlotte red“Eco-warriors are suspected to be behind an attack on a Conservative candidate’s family which flooded their garden with 1,300 litres of oil. When former beach lifeguard Charlotte Leslie, 36, voted in favour of fracking in Parliament in January, vandals daubed sick graffiti on her Bristol North West constituency office. And last week criminals struck at her parents’ village home near the city – drilling holes in their garden oil tank, spraying insults on three cars and slashing tyres.” – Daily Mail

>Yesterday: LeftWatch: More vandalism and dirty tricks targeted at Tory candidates

Tim Montgomerie: Here’s the grand deal which could save Cameron

“What if he offered a Queen’s Speech that was inspired by the best of all that the parties have offered in this election? A federal UK; a referendum on the EU; proportional representation for local government; a new generation of garden cities; higher council tax bands for the better off and reform of non-dom taxes to fund lower income taxes for the poor; the completion of Universal Credit; implementation of the few savings that the various parties have presented in recent months — including the abolition of police commissioners and limits on benefits for richer pensioners.” – The Times (£)

Clegg hints again at a second Tory coalition

Coalition Colours“Nick Clegg has conceded for the first time that forming a coalition with Labour, who have ‘vilified’ him for five years, could prove more difficult than with the Tories. The Lib Dem leader said Ed Miliband’s party had not gone through the ‘pain barrier’ of realising they could not win outright, whereas he claimed David Cameron’s party ‘know the game is up’. Mr Clegg said Labour had spent the past five years attacking the Lib Dems as ‘quislings’ for joining with the Tories – and would now have ‘a hell of a job’ convincing their party activists to accept a coalition with his party. He has been buoyed by a poll in his Sheffield Hallam constituency giving him a clear lead over the Labour candidate, due to an apparent surge in tactical voting among local Tory supporters.” – Daily Mail

  • Polls put Lib Dems back in crucial kingmaker position – The Times (£)
  • Clegg decries Tories as ‘an English party’ – The Independent
  • Party would force Tories to water down welfare cuts as price of pact – Daily Telegraph
  • Clegg claims new coalition would need a majority – The Scotsman
  • Last-minute tactical voting could decide the election – Financial Times
  • Lord Steel urges party to avoid second round with the Conservatives – The Guardian

Comment and editorial:

>Yesterday: Samuel Coates in Comment: “Blukip”? Wrong time, wrong place

Cable attacks prospect of an EU referendum

“Vince Cable put himself at the head of Liberal Democrat opposition to another coalition deal with the Conservatives yesterday, after a forthright attack on the their key demand of a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. The business secretary said the Conservative promise of a vote in 2017 was a “seriously bad idea” against which his party would take a “strong position” in any coalition negotiations. His stance is notably tougher than Nick Clegg’s and is understood to reflect frustration with the Liberal Democrat leader for his failure to set a higher bar before possible talks with the Tories.” – The Times (£)

>Today: Ashley Fox MEP’s column: Meanwhile, back in Brussels, Conservative MEPs are battling for Britain

Union bosses order Miliband to offer the Lib Dems voting reform…

MILIBAND Red Ed“Union bosses have told Ed Miliband to offer the Liberal Democrats electoral reform in return for power, it has emerged. Senior sources from two major unions affiliated to Labour told Channel 4 News that if the Conservatives fail to win an overall majority but remain the largest party, then Mr Miliband should act swiftly to form an anti-Tory deal with Nick Clegg’s party to shut David Cameron out of power. One of the figures called on the Labour leader woo the Lib Dems by promising reform to the way MPs are elected, mentioning proportional representation as a possible option.” – The Independent

  • The election when First Past the Post lost – James Forsyth, The Spectator

…as he paints a bleak picture of life without him…

“Ed Miliband delivered his last major speech as Britain’s would-be prime minister on Wednesday as he exhorted his supporters to “fight with every breath” in what he called the closest election the country has ever seen. At an eve-of-poll rally in central Leeds, Mr Miliband hailed his party’s general election drive as the “biggest people-driven campaign in history” and urged supporters to draw on the spirit of the trade unions, the gay rights lobby and the women’s pay campaign in the final 24 hours of the campaign. The health service faces destruction with another five years of Conservative-led government, Mr Miliband said. Closing what he described eight months ago as his “job interview with the British people,” he asked voters to “use your power for you, your family, and our NHS.”” – Daily Telegraph

  • Welsh Labour block voter who complained about A&E on Twitter – The Sun (£)
  • DUP claim Labour have ‘zero economic credibility’ – Daily Telegraph
  • Labour leader invokes Labour founder in bid to woo Scots – The Times (£)
  • Mystery as £30k tablet of vows vanishes – The Sun (£)


…and refuses to rule out SNP-abetted ‘power grab’

Miliband and Salmond“Ed Miliband has repeatedly refused to rule out trying to seize power with the SNP’s help – even if Labour loses the election. The Labour leader was asked three times to rule out attempting to form a government if his party comes second behind the Tories. Each time, he dodged the question – raising fears that he will attempt to cobble together a Left-wing coalition so he can grab the keys to No 10. In an interview with Channel 5, Mr Miliband was asked if it was “legitimate” for a party which finishes second to form a Government.” – The Sun (£)

  • Balls claims Labour will not sit down with Sturgeon – The Independent
  • I back Miliband as he’s no Tory, explains Sturgeon – The Scotsman


  • The strange silence of unionist Scotland – John Lloyd, Financial Times
  • Is being a Tory really as vile as Sturgeon makes out? – Alan Cochrane, Daily Telegraph
  • English nationalism is out of the bottle, whoever wins – Owen Jones, The Guardian


Savills predict a ‘mortgage bombshell’ from Labour

“Families will see their mortgage repayments jump by up to £5,000 next year if interest rates rise under a Labour government propped up by the SNP, a new analysis has found. Some of the world’s biggest fund managers have warned that interest rates could rise significantly under Ed Miliband because he will pay off the deficit more slowly. Savills, the estate agents, said that a two per cent rise in interest rates would see homeowners in England and Wales face an extra £2,627 a year in repayments, based on an average £131,373 mortgage. For Londoners, where higher property prices means average mortgages are some £263,422, a two per cent rise in interest rates would increase annual repayments by £5,268 a year, Savills calculated.” – Daily Telegraph

Michael Heseltine: Miliband isn’t fit to lead, it’s as simple as that

HESELTINE Michael“I believe Ed Miliband’s scaremongering reliance on building wholly unfounded fears about the NHS is the clearest indication as to why he should never be prime minister of this country. Mr Miliband wants to talk about the Health Service because he doesn’t talk about the economy. The last Labour government played a serious role in creating the conditions of the economic crisis. The central issue of this election remains whether they are to be given the opportunity to do so all over again – but this time, at the behest of the Scottish Nationalists who don’t even want the United Kingdom to survive.” – Daily Telegraph

  • Conservatives believe in prosperity, Labour in a magical money tree – Allister Heath, Daily Telegraph

Miliband guru admits he’s only been to the UK half a dozen times

“He was hailed as Ed Miliband’s US campaign guru when he was hired for a reported six figure sum last year. But David Axelrod, the former political advisor to Barack Obama, has only been to Britain ‘half a dozen times’, he admitted today. Mr Axelrod – nicknamed ‘The Axe – is reportedly earning £300,000 from Labour for his campaign advice. That works out at a tidy £50,000 a trip. Labour may also feel his comments to website Politico today were not particularly on message. In it he praised the Tories for their ‘shrewd’ campaign tactic of getting the SNP into the debates. Asked what his job was with the Labour campaign, he said: ‘Consulting on the phone, mainly consulting on message. I’ve been here half a dozen times.’” – Daily Mail

Harman defends segregated rally

harman“Labour’s deputy leader Harriet Harman this morning defended the party’s controversial gender-segregated election rally – insisting it was ‘better than a men-only meeting’. Ms Harman, who has made her political career fighting for women’s rights, said boycotting the meeting would have been ‘rude’. It comes after the party was dragged into a furious ‘sexism’ row after senior Labour figures, including Ms Harman’s husband Jack Dromey, spoke at a meeting in Birmingham on Saturday even though men sat on one side of the room and women on the other. Labour has denied that people were forced to sit separately based on gender – even though photographs from the event show that the groups were clearly segregated.” – Daily Mail

Freer claims Labour campaigners are trying to use his sexuality against him with Jewish voters

“Labour campaigners are reminding Orthodox Jewish voters that their party’s Conservative rival in a key marginal seat is gay, it was claimed today. Senior Tory Mike Freer, 54, has spoken of multiple incidents where Labour activists in the Finchley and Golders Green constituency in north London allegedly raised his sexuality with voters. Mr Freer – who is openly gay and married to his partner of 23 years, Angelo Crolla – said the apparent tactic was a ‘desperate’ attempt by Labour to win a seat which he is the favourite to hold. He told PinkNews: ‘We got a phone call in the office from a lady who said she had been canvassed by the Labour party. She wanted to know if it’s true if I was gay. I said “Yes, it’s not a secret”.’ Mr Freer said some of his Jewish councillors knocked doors later on – and three residents said they could no longer support him because he was gay, after this was brought up by Labour canvassers.” – Daily Mail

Farage admits his head is on the chopping block

Nigel Farage“Nigel Farage has admitted his ‘neck is on the line’ – as he said he will give up his attempts to become an MP if he does not win tomorrow. The Ukip leader pledged to stand by his promise to step down from his role in charge of the party if he is not elected in South Thanet. As he campaigned in the Kent constituency, Mr Farage said he expected the result to be ‘tight’ in what he described as the ‘biggest fight of his political career’. The contest is the seventh time Mr Farage has stood for Parliament. Asked if it would be his last if he is unsuccessful, Mr Farage said: ‘I would have thought so, wouldn’t you? I think this is the final countdown here.’” – Daily Mail

  • Farage campaign draws to a close amidst fresh scandals over members’ views – The Independent
  • UKIP in line for £2.5m windfall if it wins just one seat – The Times (£)
  • Farage tells supporters to vote UKIP ‘and get my country back’ – Daily Telegraph
  • Major donor tells supporters to vote Tory where it can’t win – Daily Telegraph


  • Has the UKIP leader met his Waterloo in South Thanet? – Dan Hodges, Daily Telegraph

Lop-sided boundaries could gift SNP seven seats

“The SNP will win an extra seven MPs because of Britain’s lopsided constituency boundaries, research by academics has revealed. Major changes drawn up by an independent commission to seat boundaries to reflect the UK’s shifting population were torpedoed by Labour and the Lib Dems three years ago. That left the voting system still heavily biased against the Tories, as it was in 2010. Because Scottish seats are smaller than English seats, it takes fewer Scottish votes to get an MP than English votes. Labour were due to profit the most, but Nicola Sturgeon’s Scots nationalist landslide north of the border will transfer much of the advantage to them, experts now say.” – The Sun (£)

>Today: LeftWatch: Election Sketch: Why the Scots are so keen to register a massive protest vote against Labour

Journalist claims he suffered anti-Semitic abuse at Respect rally

GALLOWAY George“A journalist who claims he was assaulted and abused with anti-Semitic remarks outside a Respect party rally in Bradford has reported the alleged incident to the police, he says. Ben Judah, a contributing writer for Politico Europe, wrote a piece about the incident in which he claims he attended a “rally” held by the Respect party in the community hall of St. Martin’s Church after being told he would be permitted access to the event. Judah, who is Jewish, says he was approached by Alyas Karmani, a “former head of Respect group in the council, which now works closely with Respect”, and “a press officer for Respect” who asked who he was.” – The Independent

News in Brief:

  • French Presidential guard threaten to go on strike over heavy guns – Daily Mail
  • Greece demands more borrowing powers or refuses to pay IMF – The Times (£)
  • Archbishop of Canterbury says we should stop pretending all religions agree – Daily Telegraph
  • Brown and Darling lead Commons exodus – Financial Times
  • Nick Griffin faces legal threat for anti-SNP ad of black men in kilts – The Independent
  • Scottish police and officials on alert over radical nationalists’ ‘anti-rigging’ campaign – The Guardian
  • SNP victory will start a new referendum movement – The Scotsman