UKIP hits record 25 per cent poll rating with Survation

FARAGE big laugh“If the poll result was repeated in next year’s General Election, it would see the Tories lose 100 seats, the certain resignation of David Cameron – and the possibility of Ed Miliband in No10.  To stop him, the Conservatives would have to join forces with Ukip and other parties from Scotland and Northern Ireland.” – Mail on Sunday

Farage: All roads now lead to Rochester & Strood

“Team Dave will throw their kitchen sink at us – and lots of unpleasant items they keep in it. But if Mr Cameron continues to tolerate the smear campaign being waged against Mark by his lieutenants, he risks setting off an even bigger wave of support for Ukip. We are not the finished article yet. We must and will continue to work on our weaknesses as well as build on our strengths. But what a long way we have come in the past couple of years.” – Mail on Sunday



  • Ukip is inviting us to a British Tea Party. The reply has to be no – Adrian Wooldridge, Sunday Times (£)
  • It’s time to fight back against UKIP’s fear-driven agenda – Matthew D’Ancona, Sunday Telegraph
  • Labour and Tories won’t stop UKIP by blaming each other – Andrew Rawnsley, Observer
  • Ukip can but dream of SNP rise – Louise Mensch, Sun on Sunday (£)

Could the UKIP surge bring down all three main party leaders?

1) Cameron under threat: “If Reckless wins Rochester, there’ll be a leadership challenge”

CAMERON knives“In a sign of the concern at the top of the Tory Party about the situation, a Cabinet Minister warns: ‘If Reckless wins Rochester, there’ll be 46 names’, a reference to the process by which Tory MPs force a leadership contest. These 46 names coming in would result in Cameron having to submit himself to a vote of no confidence by his MPs. This Cabinet member predicts: ‘Cameron would win. But it would be very damaging.’” – James Forsyth, Mail on Sunday

  • James Cracknell may be the Conservative candidate in Rochester – Mail on Sunday
  • Prime Minister: I’ll save thousands of returning troops from the employment scrapheap – Sun on Sunday (£)
  • Lynton Crosby under new attack over tobacco lobbying – Observer

Tory MPs speak out:

  • John Baron: I would “never say never” to joining UKIP.
  • Martin Vickers: I have held talks with local UKIP.
  • Peter Bone: We should double badge with UKIP
  • Paul Uppal: I don’t want Tory MPs canvassing for me.
  • Richard Harrington: In “much of the country, we don’t have an organisation for campaigning at all” – All in the Sunday Times (£)
  • (Farage rules out Ukip pact with Tories – Sunday Express)


  • “David Cameron has six months in which to stop Ukip’s bandwagon. If he fails, the Conservatives risk not only losing next year’s general election but suffering lasting damage.” – Peter Kellner, Sunday Times (£)
  • Time to ‘put up or shut up’ over an EU referendum – Bob Neill, Sunday Telegraph

2) Miliband under threat: Andrew Mackinlay says – Go now…

Miliband Odd and Red“Of our elder statesmen, no-nonsense former Home Secretary Alan Johnson or plain-talking ex-Chancellor Alistair Darling would both be better leaders than Ed Miliband. And among younger Labour MPs, Yvette Cooper, Chuka Umunna and Andy Burnham can all, unlike Ed, deliver crisp, cogent – and complete – speeches. Ed, for the sake of the party we both love, please stand aside now.” – Mail on Sunday

  • Carswell: “A member of the parliamentary Labour party called me this morning and we had a chat about them coming over. It’s looking very promising.” – Sunday Times (£)
  • Miliband is facing a fresh set of dire personal poll ratings – Sunday Telegraph
  • UKIP is tapping into a seam of despair that Labour cannot and will not ignore – Ed Miliband, Observer
  • “And yes we do need to talk much more about immigration” – Yvette Cooper, Independent on Sunday
  • Mitchell, Mills repeat demand for EU referendum – Sun on Sunday (£)

…As Alan Johnson goes public to say that he doesn’t want to replace Miliband as Labour leader

“Does he want the leadership? “No. First of all, the question doesn’t arise. Anybody who suggested to me — and no one has, incidentally — that there should be a change of leadership, I would say, ‘Get a grip.’…Being prime minister is a “god-awful job” and he has made it clear to Ed Miliband “exactly how I feel about it”. So that’s that, then.” – Interview, Sunday Times

  •  Brown unfurls devolution plan – Scotland on Sunday
  • Blair charity reels from £50,000 theft – Sunday Telegraph
  • ‘You’ll not be seeing my assets on the front of a magazine any time soon.’ – Karen Danczuk interview, Mail on Sunday

3) Clegg under threat: Razzall warns against plot to oust him

CURSE OF CLEGG one“Lib Dem grandee Lord Razzall claimed MPs were rocked by polls predicting humiliation at the next Election, but urged them to rally round the Deputy PM – or face an even bigger defeat in 2015. Lord Razzall, former Lib Dem campaigns chief, compared the ‘manoeuvrings’ of ambitious Lib Dem MPs to the way former party leader Charles Kennedy was toppled after a long-running whispering campaign.” – Mail on Sunday

Lord Ashcroft: The Party Conference season has made no difference. “The last few weeks have reinforced the parties’ strengths and weaknesses rather than changed anything.”

“And although close observers agree Cameron had a good conference and Miliband a bad one, I found people’s preference of PM was completely unchanged since before the whole jamboree started.Just under three in ten — 29 per cent — said they were satisfied with the job Cameron is doing, and another third — 34 per cent — said they were dissatisfied but would rather have him as PM than the alternative. Only 37 per cent said they would rather see Miliband in Number 10.” – Sun on Sunday (£)

  • “The PM’s personal rating among Ukippers has fallen by almost a third since he made the vow in his conference speech.” – Sun on Sunday (£)
  • “Both Peter Kellner of YouGov and the elections expert Colin Rallings said current polling data suggested that Ukip could take 10-12 seats” – Sunday Times (£)

> Today: ToryDiary – Now Cameron needs Gove

> Yesterday:

Hague prepares EVEL strike on Labour

HAGUE Merry Christmas“The new pressure on the Labour leader has come from William Hague, the Cabinet minister who is leading the talks for the Tories to agree a cross-party solution to the West Lothian Question. If there is no deal by November 30, the Conservatives will end talks and develop their own plans which will be put to a vote on the floor of the House of Commons before the general election.” – Sunday Telegraph

Alan Duncan to say that British Jews are needed for “British parties”, not the “Israel Lobby”

“In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute on Tuesday, Duncan will warn Cameron that groups such as Conservative Friends of Israel (CFI) should not have disproportionate policy influence. “We need British Jews for the Conservative, Labour or other UK parties, not the Israeli lobby for any party,” he will say. “The time has come to make sure above any doubt that the funding of any party in the UK is clearly decoupled from the influence of the Israeli state.” – Sunday Times (£)

  • How the UK can show itself in a bold and principled light – Alan Duncan, Independent on Sunday
  • Warsi: MPs must show way in Palestine vote – Observer
  • Warsi confirms that “there will be a book” – Interview, Observer
  • Miliband whips Labour MPs for Palestine vote, but only if they’re in the building – Independent on Sunday

Another push by Gove on Right of Recall?

michael-gove“The Sunday Telegraph understands that the Government has agreed to give Tory MPs a free vote on the floor of the House of Commons over plans for new Recall powers. This could allow the existing plans to be amended to let members of the public – not politicians – decide whether misbehaving MPs should be sacked. The decision is a victory for campaigners for greater democracy who want the recall powers to be put in the hands of the public, not MPs.” – Sunday Telegraph

Paterson: Suspend the Climate Change Act

“Britain will struggle to “keep the lights on” unless the Government changes its green energy policies, the former environment secretary will warn this week. Owen Paterson will say that the Government’s plan to slash carbon emissions and rely more heavily on wind farms and other renewable energy sources is fatally flawed. He will argue that the 2008 Climate Change Act, which ties Britain into stringent targets to reduce the use of fossil fuels, should be suspended until other countries agree to take similar measures.” – Sunday Telegraph

Vaizey to clamp down on nuisance calls and spam

VAIZEY Ed“The prospect of fines is expected to stop firms harassing customers with recorded messages that promise, for example, to help them recover mis-sold payment protection insurance. Many of these firms are believed to have illegally obtained the mobile and landline phone numbers they ring, while the messages can often mark the start of a scam – some even lie that they will block nuisance calls for a fee.” – Independent on Sunday

May to curb police powers to hack journalists’ phones

“Home Secretary Theresa May will drive through a new law to stop officers snooping on reporters unless they are investigating serious crimes. And she will ensure that they need approval from judges or watchdogs for the intrusive surveillance – which at the moment can be approved simply ‘on the nod’ from colleagues.” – Mail on Sunday

People who post ‘revenge porn’ on internet face two years in jail, says Grayling

GRAYLING collarless“Cruel individuals who publish intimate pictures or videos to retaliate against their former partners will be targeted with the new law, which will also catch those sending explicit photographs in text messages between mobile phones. Campaigners welcomed the plan, which will be formally proposed in Parliament this week, but warned that “frightening” numbers of young people were putting themselves at risk by sending explicit images to each other.” – Sunday Telegraph

Brooks Newmark to stand down at next election after second sexting incident is revealed

“I have long argued in Parliament against the stigma which we too often attach to mental illness. But I did not practise what I preached. I talked about my anorexia as a teenager, yet I was never brave enough to admit first that I was suffering from depression, or that I was lapsing into episodes of behaviour that any normal person would regard as bizarre and abhorrent. I realise now – too late – that I need treatment.” – Brooks Newmark, Mail on Sunday

  • Newmark’s second sexting – The Sun on Sunday (£)
  • Miller issues stark warning against child sexting epidemic – Mail on Sunday
  • Caroline Nokes forced to change locks and install panic alarm as she tells of hell at hands of trolls who back Fathers 4 Justice – Mail on Sunday
  • Soubry rumpus over maimed paratrooper – Mail on Sunday

 News in Brief

  • Sales of gas masks, bio-hazard suits and foil blankets soar as ‘survivalists’ prepare for Ebola epidemic – Mail on Sunday
  • ‘Damaging’ A-level reform threatens to reverse maths uptake, say advisers – Observer
  • £125 ticket to join jihad – Sun on Sunday (£)
  • Snowden leaks mean GCHQ takes three times as long to track terrorists – Sunday Telegraph
  • Winter energy bills frozen as Big Six urged to cut prices – Sunday Express
  • Tesco turmoil grows as key executive quits – Sunday Times (£)
  • Bucks row over Pickles Sikh faith school decision – Sunday Times (£)
  • Hunt on for remains of King Harold – The Independent

And finally: Lest we forget. Lord Tebbit on the 30th anniversary of the Brighton Bomb

Screen shot 2014-10-12 at 08.28.26“I am often asked if I can find it in my heart to forgive the creature, Patrick Magee, who planted the bomb. That, of course, is not possible, for Magee has never repented. It was not he who decided to commit that crime in Brighton, financed it and procured the bomb that he planted. If he was repentant and wanted to see justice done, he would have told the truth and named those guilty of those crimes. But I do try to draw a line between the criminal acts perpetrated by those who led Sinn Fein/IRA during the terrorist campaign, and what the leaders of Sinn Fein/IRA did to help Northern Ireland to its present uneasy peace.” – Sunday Telegraph

  • Cameron pays bomb anniversary tribute to Thatcher on 30th anniversary of Brighton Bomb – Sunday Express

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