Carswell 1) Early poll shows UKIP at 64 per cent in Clacton

Opinion Poll graphic‘Ukip are set to win their first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the vote following the biggest swing in modern political history. Turncoat MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate David Cameron at the Clacton by-election sparked by his defection, a  Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday has revealed.’ – Mail on Sunday

>Today: ToryDiary: Roll up! Roll up! Play the Great Clacton By-Election Game!

Carswell 2) Other MPs might defect – if they can dodge a by-election

‘Ukip sources said at least one other Tory MP has told its leader, Nigel Farage, that he is prepared to follow Douglas Carswell and defect, but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election. Another MP is said to be “seriously considering” a move to Ukip. The warning came as Carswell’s friend Zac Goldsmith, the MP for Richmond Park, revealed that he could switch parties if Ukip changes its stance on green issues.’ – Sunday Times (£)

Carswell 3) Cameron’s man gets EU Council Presidency

EU Flag‘Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, was appointed the new president of the European Council last night after he received British backing. He will replace Herman Van Rompuy, who announced his successor on Twitter. In a boost for David Cameron’s attempt to seek a new deal from Brussels, Tusk last night said the European Union would need solutions to Britain’s concerns, adding: “No one sensible can envisage the ‘black scenario’ of an EU without Britain.”’ – Sunday Times (£)

Carswell 4) Farage: Winning Clacton is double or quits

‘Being a gambler, I will say the chances of us having the balance of power are utterly dependent on us winning in Clacton. I’m going to keep playing double or quits until I lose. But if I win three more hands, we’ll be out of the EU and a free country again. There is a massive appetite out there for change.’ – The Sun on Sunday (£)

New terror powers agreed by Coalition

Police shield‘David Cameron and Nick Clegg have agreed to a toughening of anti-terror measures in what will be seen as a return of control orders in all but name, it emerged last night. The Prime Minister will address the House of Commons tomorrow on Parliament’s first day back after the summer recess to tell MPs how the Government is responding to the heightened terror threat to the UK and the rise of Islamic State.’ – The Independent on Sunday

>Yesterday: ToryDiary: Countering Islamist extremism needs brains as much as muscle

Britain to join 10,000-strong NATO force to deter Putin

‘Lithuania is one of at least six states believed to have signed up to a new British-led Nato rapid-reaction force, the formation  of which is expected to be announced this week by David Cameron as Wales hosts the most important Alliance gathering since the end of the Cold War. Denmark, Latvia, Estonia, Norway and the Netherlands will also join the 10,000-troop bid to deter Putin.’ – Mail on Sunday

Norman: Bercow is damaging the office of Speaker

John Bercow‘Mr Bercow was elected after his predecessor Michael Martin lost a vote of no confidence – an extraordinarily rare and damaging event for the Speaker. If it is allowed to drag on, the appointment of Ms Mills has the potential to cause new damage to the office of Speaker, and so to the House of Commons.’ – Jesse Norman MP, Mail on Sunday

>Yesterday: MPs ETC: Speaker Bercow will probably survive – but he doesn’t deserve to

Wright ‘must have known’ about Rotherham sex abuse

‘The Police and Crime Commissioner for South Yorkshire, has claimed the scale of the crisis was a ‘huge surprise’ to him after a report revealed at least 1,400 girls in Rotherham were abused by gangs of predominantly Asian men. But a dossier of more than 20 files provides powerful evidence that in his former post as cabinet member for children’s services in Rotherham, Mr Wright must have been aware…’ – Mail on Sunday

Danny Alexander flirts with Labour

Lib Dem Bird Tory‘Alexander is keen to offer overtures to Labour, pointing out that the experience of fighting the Scottish referendum campaign means he could work happily with Ed Miliband’s team. “If the electorate deal the cards that way and we can reach an agreement I would be just as willing to do my bit as I have been over the last four years. I’ve been working very closely with Alistair Darling on the referendum campaign,” he says.’ – Sunday Times (£)

Sir Paul McCartney urges Scots to stay

‘Sir Paul McCartney has made his feelings clear on which way he thinks Scotland should vote on 18 September. The musician has added his name to an open letter calling for Scotland to remain part of the UK, the Let’s Stay Together campaign has said.’ – The Independent on Sunday

Pressure on Osborne to reform Stamp Duty

Homes For All Big‘A cross-party group of MPs, including Tory grandee John Redwood, is bringing forward a debate that will give them the first chance to challenge the property tax this decade. Due to be held on ­Thursday, it is being led by Conservative MP Anne Main, who claims stamp duty is causing “sclerosis” in the market. The number of households being forced to pay higher rates of stamp duty has more than doubled in the past decade, figures show. ‘ – Sunday Express

Morgan: Gove set out the path, I’m following it

‘“Michael was a great reforming Secretary of State. He is going to be remembered as someone who had an enormous impact. Michael set out the reforms, my job is to implement them,” she says. But the way in which she presents that work will matter enormously, both to those reforms and the Conservative election campaign.’ – Sunday Telegraph

Record numbers of babies survive birth before the abortion limit

Baby shield‘At least 120 babies born during week 23 of a pregnancy — the last week when abortions on demand are legal — have survived in the past four years…New figures show the number of babies who are born before the 24-week legal abortion limit and survive is rising at large hospitals with specialist doctors.’ – Sunday Times (£)

First female boss for the BBC Trust

‘The BBC is to get its first female boss in its history in an effort to shake up the broadcaster after the scandals over Jimmy Savile and executive pay. David Cameron has approved the appointment of Rona Fairhead, the former chief executive of the Financial Times, to chair the BBC Trust after she vowed to reform the way that the corporation is governed.’ – Sunday Times (£)

News in brief

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