Syria. May’s calculation and the dangers of a May miscalculation – to others and to her

She will be feeling a hand of history on her shoulder, and wondering if the other holds a knife at her back.

Let’s suppose missile strikes target the Assad regime. But afterwards chemical weapons are used again in Syria. What then?

Reports this morning suggest conflict within the Government and hesitation in America. And no wonder.

WWGD

It may be useful to ask how the Environment Secretary would handle problems confronting other Cabinet Ministers. Consider the case of knife and gun crime.

The Syrian horror. No easy answers.

Public opinion would back missile strikes against Assad, and arming a credible opposition, were there to be one. But not more western boots on the ground.

Raab is right: the Migration Advisory Committee must weigh housing in its judgements

It’s remarkable that the official public body that advises the Government on such issues seems not to have published a report on this topic since 2011.

Our survey. Over half of members think there will be a Tory majority in 2022.

This is a major rebound in grassroots confidence compared to the start of the year, reflecting both Labour’s woes and the Government’s successful handling of Russia.

London’s local elections. Beware of spin.

The capital isn’t a single political entity. Rather, it is still in some ways a Napoleon-of-Notting-Hill-style mass of small towns.

May’s diplomatic coup against Russia sees her bounce back in our Cabinet League Table

Truss moves up into the middle of the table, Williamson drops towards the floor, and Gauke slumps into the red over Warboys.

Rees-Mogg tops our Next Tory Leader survey for the third month running

The changes in the ratings of the top three are almost unchanged, another tribute to the consistency of the poll.

The Conservatives are grappling with a gender voting gap

The old assumption that women were more likely to vote Conservative has been overturned – so the search is on for policies to restore it.

Some on the Right may admire Putin – but Tory members are not among them, our survey suggests

We wanted to discover if a substantial underbelly of Tory member opinion believes that Russia isn’t a threat to our security. There isn’t one.

Our survey. Are Tory members shifting towards backing tax rises? They divide over one to help fund the NHS.

41 per cent say spending should rise further and be funded by a specific hike, while 44 per cent oppose the idea.

Our survey. Half of Tory members are satisfied with May’s transition deal. Almost two in five are dissatisfied.

That’s down from the seven in ten who backed the pre-Christmas EU agreement, but Downing Street may well think the finding could be a lot worse.

We advised scepticism about the Brexit conspiracy theories – and now The Observer is ‘clarifying’ its allegations

Wishful thinking is a risky thing to indulge – it can lead people not to ask sufficiently tough questions to test the things that they are told.

Low expectations could make the local election results seem like a Conservative triumph

UKIP’s decline will probably allow the three main parties to each claim an increased vote share. Afterwards, the Tories will still be the largest party in local government.