There will now be an emergency meeting of the National Convention to debate the motion of no confidence organised by Dinah Glover.
This result makes one think back to the summer of 2016, and Gove’s abandonment of Johnson during the leadership election that year.
We scarcely need to make the point again. Our Party members’ panel is backing the candidate, in any run-off, least associated with the Prime Minister’s policy.
This completes a disappointing set of results for Javid, who beat Gove for top slot when we held run-offs last summer.
A pattern is emerging whereby the contender least associated with the Government gets more support than the other.
Again, note that neither candidate has over half the total. Over one in five of our Party member panel respondents would abstain.
These results suggest that while the Foreign Secretary may be doing well among Tory MPs, he would have way to go were his name to be put to Party members.
The abstention rate plummets to under ten per cent once a non-Cabinet member who voted Leave in 2016 is offered to the panel.
Again, note the abstention rate. Almost a fifth of respondents don’t vote at all. So we have yet to find a candidate who can gain half the vote.
This finding suggests that many members will sit on their hands if two candidates who voted Remain in 2016 reach the final.
The easiest course for 1922 Executive Committtee members to take is to put a decision off. Here’s why that should be avoided.
The pattern of results over many months suggests that the worse the position of the Conservatives, the better he does.
This finding is extraordinary, but there are at least four reasons why it could be on the money – and is a reliable guide to the trend.
Over seven in ten of our Party member respondents are opposed to the initiative for the second month running.
The voluntary Party has lost confidence in the Prime Minister. Is anyone listening around the Cabinet table?