The danger zone is between about 105 to 120 or more votes against her – i.e: a slice more than a third of the vote.
We currently have it at 189 declared for May, versus the 31 publicly opposed, and 93 undeclared.
Link to the Commons’ Library briefing paper, publicly available via the Parliament website.
Also including: Twickenham, Battersea, Croydon Central, Kingston and Surbiton, and Dewsbury.
“The Government will step up its work in preparation for [no deal] and the Cabinet will hold further discussions on it this week.”
The number of Tory MPs who oppose the deal stands at 71. Lamont, Freeman are the latest to say they won’t back it.
Plus a further 41 probable or possible opponents. But such calculations are an art, not a science – and the totals will change.
We have the full list from the New Progressive Democratic Liberal National Coalition Party – including a three-way Northern Ireland jobshare.
“If we broker an honourable compromise…we will pass the test that history has set for us today.” May’s Commons speech. Full text.
“This debate.. is not about whether we could have taken a different path in the past, but which road we should take from here.”
Some favour a Second Referendum; others, EEA membership. But they have combined to deal the Prime Minister a second bloody blow in a single day.
The DUP also voted with the Opposition. The earlier Government amendment to the motion fell by four votes.
“The divisions of the referendum need to be consigned to the past. Now is the time to…lead our country to a future of freedom, success, and prosperity.”
“It is frankly disgraceful that the Chancellor…has not published the underlying assumptions.” Davis’ speech on forecasting. Full Text.
“The truth is that the Treasury is more often wrong than right. And the same goes for the OBR.”
“This deal honours the result of the referendum.” The Prime Minister’s Commons statement on the Brexit deal. Full text.
“No-one knows what would happen if this deal doesn’t pass. It would open the door to more division and more uncertainty, with all the risks that will entail.”
“The British people don’t want to spend any more time arguing about Brexit.” May’s statment at the EU summit. Full text.
“So I will take this deal back to the House of Commons confident we have achieved the best deal available.”
The UK “will leave the European Union. We will then begin a new chapter in our national life.” May’s letter – full text
“I will be campaigning with my heart and soul to win that vote and to deliver this Brexit deal, for the good of our United Kingdom and all of our people.”