It is very hard to see how the Commons could stop a no deal Brexit without forcing a general election. Assuming the Prime Minister keeps her word.
Don’t presume anything about a Commons vote on May’s deal. Especially a second vote. If she’s still in place after a first one goes down…
The Government has clearly lost the support of the DUP, and is operating at present with no majority.
In a nutshell, this deal would bring back control of borders and money. But not laws in any meaningful sense. Which is where the problems begin.
It can’t have been Parliament’s intention to allow Northern Ireland to form part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain for any purpose.
May won’t yield to their demand for renegotiation unless she believes that at least some of them will quit. And on the basis of last week, why would she?
Which may or may not cast light on why the Chairman of the 1922 Committee must make enquiries about correspondence in his possession.
The finding suggests that May will have an uphill struggle to sell it to them, just as she had over Chequers.
May above him, Hammond beside him and Robbins ahead of him, this pro-Leave politician will have embraced his new post knowing that he is hemmed in.
She didn’t establish herself as a strategic Home Secretary, but is a highly effective media performer.
So he’s left presumably unwilling to sell May’s deal on any other basis that it’s bad…but that the alternative is worse.
That’s the single fact that stands out from the “low tragedy, high farce” of resignations, splits, divisions, principles and ambitions consuming British and Brexit politics.
He is conflicted by disliking May’s deal yet being in the front line of a No Deal Brexit – and aware that as a Vote Leave figurehead he is unusually exposed.
She had little alternative after calling for a vote on the draft deal in Cabinet yesterday, and being rebuffed by the Prime Minister, the Cabinet Secretary and the Chief Whip.
This blow to the heart of the Government does nothing to make a challenge less likely. Get ready for Run Raabit Run Raabit Run Run Run.