ConHome and the contest. Our eve-of-ballot survey had the winner’s total to within a point.

It found Johnson on 67 per cent, Hunt on 29 per cent and “Other” on four per cent. Our next two surveys were closer to a YouGov poll.

CONSERVATIVE PARTY LEADERSHIP ELECTION RESULT. IT’S JOHNSON BY A TWO TO ONE MARGIN – 66 PER CENT TO 34 PER CENT.

He wins by 92,153 votes to 46,656, on an 87 per cent turnout – 159,320 votes cast in all.

“Nick” – and why no-one, even in the Labour Party, will trust Watson’s judgement again

It is not, repeat not, always right to “believe the victim” – precisely because, as in this case, the victim is sometimes not a victim at all.

May’s premiership. How a loner leader met an isolated end.

The more centralised her decision-making became, the less control over events she actually had.

The Ayatollahs of August

Johnson will want no distractions from Brexit this summer, but history suggests that he may get one – in the Straits of Hormuz.

Our final Next Tory Leader survey. Johnson 73 per cent, Hunt 27 per cent, say those members who have voted.

But because the ballot has been spread out over several weeks, earlier surveys may be a better guide to Tuesday’s result.

Johnson’s August 4) Who would run an election campaign? After yesterday’s Government defeat, the question is pressing.

If the campaign management were outsourced, as recently, who would take it on? And if it weren’t, could CCHQ really cope?

Johnson’s August 3) Delivering campaign pledges – in so far as he can without a durable majority

His time and room are very constricted, but he can at least demonstrate his domestic priorities – police and schools.

Johnson’s August 2) Finding support among opposition MPs – or at least trying to – before any no confidence vote

There are now 15 independents, plus the Change UK factions and a smattering of pro-Brexit rebel Labour MPs.

Johnson’s August 1) He must spend time in Scotland

The first in a ConservativeHome series of what the new Prime Minister must do in the month before Parliament returns in September.

Is the Official Secrets Act fit for purpose?

That newspapers may technically be open to proceedings over the Darroch cables highlights weaknesses in our legislation.

Hunt is cooler under fire during the Neil grillings. But how much difference will they really make?

The veteran broadcaster put Johnson under severe pressure…but it’s very late in the day in the contest.

Trump Actually

The UK – US relationship will roll on, despite his insults to our Ambassdor. To suggest otherwise is leadership election positioning, not real politics.

Our survey. Next Tory Leader. Johnson 72 per cent, Hunt 28 per cent. 72 per cent overall have voted. On these figures, Johnson has already won.

If the survey is accurate, it would be reasonable to assume, on the evidence available, that he will gain between 67 per cent and 71 per cent of the vote. 

71 per cent of Johnson supporters and 58 per cent of Hunt supporters have already voted, according to our survey.

All of which supports the view that a clear majority of Party members have already returned their ballot papers.