What helps a first-time MP is what he does in his seat – not the fact that he is there in the first place.
The restoration of Labour’s lead in the ANP results from a six-point fall in the Tory share
Conservatives must reassure voters about their intentions, as well as cultivating uncertainty about Labour, if they are to win.
No won among men and women; the currency was a major motivation; but ‘Yes voters don’t think the question will stay settled for long.
As ever, it’s a snapshot – but the detail reveals some disturbing popular doubts about the Opposition and Ed Miliband.
Meanwhile, David Cameron remains the least unpopular party leader – and the only one to outpoll his party.
More than half of those who voted Conservative in 2010 now intend to vote UKIP – but will they stick with that choice in 2015?
Even in Labour’s “second tier” target seats, there’s an average 6.5 per cent swing towards the party. Still, these voters are pretty satisfied with Cameron.
My latest polls demonstrates Boris’s ability to galvanise Tory support – but his mayoral office and competence divide the voters of Uxbridge.
But even Labour voters have their doubts about Miliband’s economic offering. The question is: how much will the economy matter on election day?
Strikingly, Labour’s advantage on the NHS precisely mirrors its deficit on the deficit. Which will matter more?
Four-party politics is driving striking changes – and there are two seats where UKIP is now in the lead.
There was no reshuffle bounce. Plus, was Gove really sacked because of his reception in focus groups?
Both main parties make ground. The poll also studied people’s attitude to and expectations of the economy.
Only two thirds of Labour voters (65 per cent) said they would rather see Miliband as PM.