I was delighted to see your appointment. I confess to slight bias, given that you retweeted an article of mine calling for an end to ring-fencing of the aid budget.
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Lord Ashcroft: Labour are in a pickle, but the Tories must keep their heads down. Lessons from my new polling report.
Voters won’t return to Labour just because Brexit is done. But nor will they stick with the Conservatives if they’re not seen to deliver.
It is only human to grasp at the most comforting explanations that come to hand. But the truth may be harder for Corbynites to swallow.
Men chose the Conservatives over Labour by a 19-point margin (48 per cent to 29 per cent), while women did so by just six points.
The latest polls clarify the choice: either Johnson gets it done, or a Corbyn-led government blocks it. A vote for Farage is a vote for the latter.
Lord Ashcroft: Labour support solidifies as expectations grow of a Tory win. My final election dashboard.
Johnson’s lead over Corbyn in the best Prime Minister stakes has narrowed slightly to 15 points.
My research suggests that parties of the centre-right should be cautious about mistaking transactional voter support for deeper allegiance.
Lord Ashcroft: “A craven opportunist”; “She’s a bit militant”; “I want it over and done with” – my final round of election focus groups
We visit Bishop Auckland, Warwick and Leamington, and Wimbledon. And ask: which actors would the interviewees cast in ‘Election 2019: The Movie’?
Lord Ashcroft: Labour is doing better among its former voters than at this campaign’s start. Week Four of my General Election Dashboard.
But my latest 4,000-sample poll, conducted between Friday and Monday, finds little change in the overall picture,
Aberdeen South and East Renfrewshire are held by the Tories, whilst Glasgow North East is one of seven Labour seats in Scotland.
And how we reached what seems like an unusually grim and shambolic time in national life.
Lord Ashcroft: The Tories hold steady, while Labour firms up its Leaver vote. Week Three of my General Election Dashboard.
When forced to choose, people prefer a Boris Johnson government to a Corbyn government by a ten-point margin, down from 12 points last week.
“It’s a really tricky one. In previous elections it’s been a simple cross in the box, now it’s so overwhelming, I feel quite sick.”
Lord Ashcroft: Have you made up your mind yet? Will you put up with Johnson to get Brexit? Week Two of my General Election Dashboard.
My latest round of polling finds no signs of a seismic shift in opinion so far. We find a similar picture to last week’s.
Such seats are absolutely to the Conservatives’ hopes of an overall majority – but what do the voters have to say?