Most of the people in most of our groups – Remain and Leave, Conservative and Labour – thought we would end up leaving with some sort of deal.
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As a woman in Iowa told us: “It’s like the CEO of the company I work for. I don’t care if you’re the nicest guy in the world. I care that I’m going to have a job from day to day.”
The 2020 race, then, looks wide open and depends on two things outside the President’s direct control.
It is an attractive destination, with a friendly population and a fascinating history, but it has been badly let down by officialdom.
Meanwhile, there is little common ground in which to find a solution which would satisfy many Remainers and Leavers simultaneously.
Magufuli talks of the ‘harmful effects of birth control’ and attacks women using contraception as ‘lazy’, but we give £45 million to boost family planning in his nation.
By a 20-point margin, voters as a whole said MPs should “vote to reject the agreement even if it is not clear what the outcome would then be”.
Lord Ashcroft: “I was like, we must pick one of these? But I’m pleasantly surprised.” My pre-election focus groups from California.
Despite his dominance of the national scene, Trump was hardly a consideration for most of our participants when it came to deciding how to vote this week.
Lord Ashcroft: “Why should I change what I think or do so that I can win?” My interview with John Kasich.
The Governor of Ohio won over four million votes in the battle to become the Republican nominee for President two years ago. Will he run again?
Lord Ashcroft: ‘The Democrats feel like the middle ground now, and that’s a bad thing’. My pre-midterm election focus groups from Iowa and Minnesota.
Trump is mostly a factor for his strongest supporters and opponents.
Lord Ashcroft: “We’re no longer Democrat and Republican. We’re socialism against conservatism.” My new pre-midterm election focus groups from America.
Voters seem more divided than ever.
Lord Ashcroft: The Tory MPs who say “they have sent in letters they haven’t”. Or “withdrawn letters they never sent”.
Brady reports no confidence moves against May that might not be no confidence moves at all.
Lord Ashcroft: A Defence Secretary who believes that the UK should consider getting stuck in to other people’s wars
At a ConHome conference interview yesterday, Williamson suggested we should do so if it will save or improve lives without disproportionate cost.
And: Churchill-mania, Moggmania, and the passion of Rory Stewart. Plus: too many lobbyists.
P.S: Re my health. At 72, everything works as it should, with one exception – but help is at hand from modern medicine…