The two most likely candidates are both Welsh-speaking Brexiteers – but hail from different parts of the principality and differ on devolution.
Posts by Henry Hill
Henry Hill is an award-winning centre-right blogger and assistant editor of ConservativeHome.Follow @
Our last pre-election Cabinet League Table. It’s a near-tie at the top: Javid, Gove, Johnson, in that order.
Whilst individual ministers rise and fall, overall the Government goes to the polls with a lot of goodwill from grassroots Conservatives.
There are so many marginal seats here that a small shift either way could dramatically change the race – but at present, the SNP look on track for a good night.
Also: Labour candidates stage a desperate revolt against Corbyn’s pact with the SNP – but is it too little, too late?
Where the Tories have rallied in Scotland, Labour appear to have done so here. There is a broad range of possible Conservative targets, but only a few anticipated gains.
All three parties have a middling band of targets – what leaps out is how so many Cameron-era gains now seem out of the Tories’ reach.
When a Labour leader has exhausted their stock of coherent charges, they claim that the Tories are going to sell the Health Service.
Their MRP projection has the Scottish Nationalists picking up several seats, often by narrow margins, which would surprise those on the ground.
This region contains a sizeable clutch of those crucial ‘Labour Leave’ seats through which the Prime Minister is trying to pave his path to an overall majority.
His ‘Contract with the People’ makes an effort to stake out some new territory for the People’s Army, but he faces an uphill climb.
In 2017 the Party remained inflexibly committed to an excessively aggressive campaign. CCHQ has learned lessons, but must not fight the last war.
The Tories are targeting Labour-held seats and the Liberal Democrats Tory-held ones, whilst Labour’s possible gains are probably out of reach.
Also: Reports of strong Tory performance and start of the Salmond trial casts shadow over the SNP; DUP claim they will have influence after the election.
The Tories and Liberal Democrats face off over a relatively small field of competitive seats, whilst an Independent seeks an upset in East Devon.
Despite early talk, the Prime Minister’s foes have not adopted a common policy, strategy, or branding and are thus fighting forlorn individual battles.