Open Europe’s new report offers a clear-eyed assessment of the practical and political hurdles the Prime Minister may face.
Posts by David Shiels
Dr David Shiels has a PhD in History from Cambridge. His research interests include this history of the Conservative Party and political biography. He is currently Archives By-Fellow at Churchill College.Follow @
The Irish Government have failed to grasp the extent to which unionist concerns would be listened in London.
In the end, it may well prefer to hold out for a general election – and the likelihood of a Brexit delay – in the hope that something better turns up.
Ultimately, they may reveal less about Brexit and more about the longer-term trends in Northern Ireland’s political landscape.
David Shiels: European Parliamentary elections would pose problems for the main parties. But especially for the Conservatives.
New polling for Open Europe shows that the Tories have special reason to be wary of this consequence of a long extension.
David Shiels: By talking up a No Deal Irish border poll, Ministers are playing into Sinn Fein’s hands
The topic is being discussed – including at Cabinet – but that in itself is not convincing evidence that such a major change is imminent.
David Shiels: Technological solutions. A greater role for the Assembly. How May could yet win over the DUP.
Rather than going over the heads of the Unionist parties, the Government needs to find a way to address their concerns.
David Shiels: Brexit, Northern Ireland, and borders. Why the DUP may yet break ranks with May – and force a general election
The issue of the backstop is becoming more heated and harder to navigate as time goes by.
David Shiels: An Ulster by-election this week – and why abstention is a greater challenge to the Union than Brexit
It knows that it can continue the policy of staying out of the institutions in Belfast and London without damaging its long-term strategy. Unionists need them to work.
It highlights primarily the increasingly difficulty capital-U Unionism faces appealing to a more diverse, less tribal Northern Ireland.
There’s division, doubt and danger surrounding the prospect of Brexit. What would Unionism look like afterwards?
The Prime Minister would do a service to his party and to the Union by doing so.
Tony Abbott, like Stephen Harper and John Key, is a convinced monarchist – and support for the institution in the countries they govern is stronger than many believe.