If nothing else moves you, remember that a win for the Prime Minister will confirm the loss of the DUP. Isn’t that the most likely route to the election you dread?
The danger zone is between about 105 to 120 or more votes against her – i.e: a slice more than a third of the vote.
We currently have it at 151 declared for May, versus the 29 who publicly filed no confidence letters.
The Chancellor said the ballot will “flush out” those who are “trying to advance a particular agenda” harmful to the national interest.
“The biggest threat to people and this country isn’t leaving the EU, it’s a Corbyn government,” the Prime Minister warned.
The Prime Minister saw off the Leader of the Opposition, but her own backbenchers seemed glum and thoughtful.
And her message amounts to warning that the alternatives wouldn’t work, so we might as well plod on as we are. It’s not very convincing.
Link to the Commons’ Library briefing paper, publicly available via the Parliament website.
She stresses securing an EU deal that delivers the result of the referendum as she speaks outside Downing Street.
“The Prime Ministers will address colleagues at the 1922 Committee meeting at 17.00 and immediately after that meeting a ballot will be held between six and eight.”
The challenge is on – and has been rushed forward in timing that helps May. None the less, a simple majority for her might not be enough.
The logic is clear enough. The EU’s choice would be between no backstop and nothing else either; or no backstop and agreement on everything else.
This is what we have been doing at the Dover front line – working hard on preparations for disruption. We are making sure that we stand ready.
If we are going to build 300,000 homes and ensure public support, quality really counts. Let’s have new homes that we can be proud of for hundreds of years.
Blue-on-blue fire over the Government’s pulling of the meaningful vote which was due today.
The Leader of the Opposition makes his case during today’s emergency debate on yesterday’s events.
Theresa May’s deputy dismissed WTO Brexit, Norway, Canada, and a second referendum in short order.
He defended the absent Prime Minister with decency and moderation, but neither Labour nor Conservative MPs were persuaded.
Also including: Twickenham, Battersea, Croydon Central, Kingston and Surbiton, and Dewsbury.
Let us hope not. It’s unlikely, but not completely impossible. The Government must battle four trends to reduce the risk.
Further details enclosed.
“I don’t regret calling the referendum, I made a promise to call the referendum and I called the referendum.”
“Theresa May is facing a dramatic vote of confidence in her leadership on Wednesday evening, after Eurosceptic MPs launched a coup against the prime minister to try to seize control of the final stages of Brexit. Tory rebels have secured the 48 names needed to trigger a confidence vote and Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee, has announced it will take place between 6pm-10pm on Wednesday. Mrs May is expected to fight for her job, but support has been draining away from the prime minister since Monday when she abandoned a planned vote in the House of Commons on her Brexit plan. If Mrs May fails to secure 158 votes – a majority of Tory MPs – she will be forced to stand down and a full Tory leadership contest would take place. Ministers loyal to the prime minister were dismayed at the prospect of a leadership challenged on Tuesday night. “If this happened it would be an act of irresponsibility, foolishness and national vandalism,” said one minister. Another minister said: “I’m certain she would fight.”” – FT
>Today:
>Yesterday:
“Owen Paterson’s letter of no confidence could prove to be the tip of the iceberg for previously loyal Brexiteers who are feeling increasingly betrayed by Theresa May. Until now, the more experienced “big beasts” in the pro-Brexit European Research Group (ERG) of Tory MPs had resisted sending letters to Sir Graham Brady, arguing that the Prime Minister still held the key to unlocking Brexit. But with a growing awareness that no deal might be the best deal on offer to leavers seeking a clean break from the EU – Mrs May’s last ditch renegotiation is no longer being seen as the solution to Brexit but its biggest obstacle. As one well-placed insider told the Telegraph: “The hardcore leavers just want to leave without a deal. They don’t want a bad deal with a diluted backstop. The real danger now is that she comes back from Brussels with some tweak that might get it over the line. The withdrawal agreement has become a threat that must be destroyed.” Combine this with the trust lost by the Prime Minister for delaying Tuesday’s meaningful vote and it appears a perfect storm is brewing on the Tory backbenches.” – Daily Telegraph
Comment:
>Today: MPs Etc.: Rolling list of MPs who have submitted letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister
“European Union leaders have insisted there will be no renegotiation of the Irish border backstop, snubbing Theresa May as she embarked on her whistlestop tour of EU capitals in a bid to seek fresh Brexit concessions. Angela Merkel told the Prime Minister at their Berlin meeting there was “no way” the Withdrawal Agreement would be reopened. Rubbing salt in the wounds, the German Chancellor told Mrs May that any Brexit negotiations had to be handled through the European Commission and not through bilateral talks with national governments. The snub came as the European Commission, France and other EU nations prepared to step up their no-deal Brexit emergency planning to heap yet more pressure on MPs in Westminster to accept the hated agreement. After Mrs May pulled today’s ‘meaningful vote’ in the Commons, the race is now on to secure concessions from Europe that might convince opponents of the deal to change their minds, particularly on the question of the Irish backstop. It has emerged that Mrs May, who was briefly locked in her car as she met Mrs Merkel, had warned EU leaders she was thinking of cancelling the vote on Sunday, before telling her Cabinet on Monday.” – Daily Telegraph
More:
Comment:
>Today: Charlie Elphicke in Comment: The Cabinet must decide today to trigger no deal preparations in full
>Yesterday:
“Sajid Javid has touted his commitment to social mobility and Boris Johnson has compared his weight loss to the Brexit preparations as contenders to succeed Theresa May prepare their pitches for the top job. The home secretary and the former foreign secretary have used The Spectator to set out their views on Brexit and their party’s future, a decision which will doubtless be interpreted as preparation for a leadership contest. Mr Javid, seen in Westminster as the favourite among ministers to succeed Mrs May, told the magazine that the Conservative Party stood, in a word, for opportunity. He said: “The much bigger picture is social mobility. That’s what I want the party to be seen as: promoting how politicians – or the right politicians – can make a real difference to you as an individual in your life… He said that in his previous role as communities secretary, he had planned to build more houses but was vetoed by Downing Street. “I think that is still an area where we can be much more radical and open up more opportunities,” he said.” – The Times
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