On May 3, a record 96 per cent of party members expected a Conservative majority in June.

Almost exactly two months later, confidence in a Tory win in 2022 or before has plunged.

It may be useful to amalgamate the responses that expect a Conservative or Conservative-led government, and those that expect a Labour or Labour-led one.

55 per cent expect a Tory Prime Minister; 45 per cent a Labour one.