Screen Shot 2017-03-05 at 20.04.38Here is the percentage of party member readers who for the last six months that have said a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome:

  • January – 92 per cent.
  • December – 90 per cent.
  • November – 89 per cent.
  • October – 91 per cent.
  • September – 91 per cent.
  • August – 92 per cent.

These are very small fluctuations and yet further evidence of the usual consistency of the survey.

This month’s total doesn’t represent a big change either, but it is 96 per cent on our usual rounding-up, and that’s easily the biggest expression of confidence of a Tory win in 2020 to date.  The Copeland by-election result will have provided a boost, and is a persuasive explanation for the rise (or most of it).

Little wonder, then, that almost three-quarters of Conservative members are opposed to Theresa May seeking a snap election, though almost a quarter disagree (see below).

Our own view on the matter remains unchanged. As we wrote last November, “May should have called an election as soon as she became Prime Minister, but that having said she won’t, she now shouldn’t unless she has to: the core of her appeal, after all, is that she’s a woman of her word.”

“But if Parliament now either makes Brexit itself or an orderly negotiation impossible, she may have no alternative but to go the country.  This one should be played by ear.”

The survey got 720 or so responses.  That’s on the low side.  But as readers will note it’s very much in the same ball park as others with more replies, and there’s no reason to believe that more responses would have made much difference.

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