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Theresa May 14-04-15

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 06.05.49Here is our first post-EU referendum result. On the Leave side, Liam Fox is hanging in there with 13 per cent.  Then there is Andrea Leadsom on the same figure.  Neither has confirmed that they will definitely stand, though Fox has come closer to indicating that he will.  On the Remain side, Stephen Crabb chalks up 9 per cent.

But though any of these three – or someone else – could break through into the final two of the Parliamentary round, there is no doubt on the basis of this survey which two candidates Party members currently want to see put before them.

In less than two whole days, the future leadership question has prompted over 1300 Party member replies – part of a survey response rate is on course to be our highest ever.  (We have spent most of the afternoon checking for any duplicate IP addresses and e-mail addresses, and for any other evidence of tampering with the responses.)

Over half of those respondents favour either Boris Johnson or Theresa May.  It’s neck and neck between them.  Out of 1315 replies from them, the Home Secretary leads the former Mayor by a mere 10 votes.  This isn’t a scientific poll, but the result is suggestive.

ConservativeHome readers are sometimes viewed as being well to the right of Party members – and Brexit diehards to boot.  As I point out from time to time, this may be true of comments below the line, but not of our readers as a whole.  Today, we have another bit of evidence: they actually put May the Remainer a sliver ahead of Boris the Leaver.

I apologise to Dominic Raab, who made it clear that he would not stand for the leadership shortly before we went to print.  George Osborne has withdrawn since.  It may be worth noting that the latter, only recently made a Minister, won more support in the survey than the former, who has been Chancellor for over six years.

I end with a health warning.  There’s lots of time for things to change.  Given the level of reader interest, we may do a special survey before the first round of Parliamentary voting and then again before the final round.

Here are the figures:

Theresa May: 29 per cent.

Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.

Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent. (13.5 per cent.)

Liam Fox: 13 per cent. (12.6 per cent.)

Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.

Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. (2.13 per cent.)

Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. (2.13 per cent.)

George Osborne: 2 per cent. (1.7 per cent.)

Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. (0.9 per cent.)

Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. (0.7 per cent.)

Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.

243 comments for: Our Next Tory Leader survey finds May leading Johnson by just ten votes in well over a thousand

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