Of the various complexities floating around the EU referendum, one seems to inspire more head-scratching than most. The question of whether Britain should have two referendums rather than one has been around for a while – even George Osborne was forced to reject it on Newsnight last week. Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, was advocating a second referendum in a Bloomberg interview only yesterday, while Leave.EU’s Arron Banks dismissed it as a “cheap trick” on Monday. But where does the idea come from, why is it being suggested and would it be a good idea?
The genesis of a second referendum lies in the fundamental question which inhabits every polling booth: security or risk? That’s a key dividing line in any election, and arguably even more so in a referendum. Do you stick with Gordon Brown, who’s held high office for years, or do you think it’s time for a change and back Cameron? Do you want to keep First Past The Post, which has served us for so long, or do you want AV, to shake up a malfunctioning political system? Should Scots stay in the good old Union, or cut themselves free of broken Westminster politics?
Both Leave and Remain campaigns are already racing to paint their opponents as offering the true risky option in the EU referendum. Pro-EU campaigners seek to conjure up fears that Brexit would be a leap in the dark, while their anti-EU opponents argue that staying in thrall to Brussels puts us on a road to less democracy and a withering economy.
The conventional wisdom is that those pressing for change are most vulnerable to the electorate’s fear of risk. ‘Better the devil you know’ is believe to be a compelling mantra for previously undecided voters. Certainly the AV and Scottish independence ballots would seem to bear that out – though of course the same electorate regularly opt for change when it comes to elections, and the pro-change side do win sometimes, so evidently it isn’t a strict rule.
The second referendum concept is born of that strategic challenge. If your opponents intend to raise endless fears about change being too risky, then giving people another vote further down the line could function to blunt their argument. And when it does come to a second vote, by that time people might already in the mindset of considering the proposed change to be a real, plausible future.
Downing Street reportedly feared that Salmond would pursue such an approach on Scottish independence for all these reasons – so it isn’t that surprising that it has come to mind among some of those thinking about the EU referendum. In a speech hosted by ConservativeHome in 2012, David Davis proposed a double referendum on the EU, which we reported as follows:
‘First, a “Mandate referendum” would take place, to give a Conservative Prime Minister a mandate “to get as close as possible to the trading alliance, the common market we all voted for in 1975”. If passed, voters would have made it clear that they want to leave the EU as it presently stands. Next, if the people had voted “Yes”, there would be a renegotiation with the aim of getting as close as possible to that trading alliance. And finally, there would be a second referendum – a “Decision Referendum” – which would give voters the option of accepting the renegotiation terms. Mr Davis wants the Mandate Referendum as well as the Act to take place in this Parliament.’
Of course, that didn’t happen – the Prime Minister decided to hold a renegotiation first, followed by a referendum to either stay in on the renegotiated terms (whatever they may prove to be) or to leave.
Cummings’ version of the concept, which he mulled in a blogpost last June, is that the forthcoming referendum would be on whether to Remain in the EU on Cameron’s renegotiated terms or to Leave. After that referendum, the Government would enter negotiations to Leave the EU – as laid out in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty – and a second referendum could take place on the outcome of those negotiations. Brussels could, perhaps, offer better terms during those negotiations, rendering the process one from which Britain would gain either way.
The idea has its pros and cons. On the plus side:
And on the down side:
The second referendum is an elegant strategic solution to a strategic challenge – the Chancellor’s eagerness to reject it out of hand suggests that he knows that it could pose a serious problem for the Remain campaign. But as well as its benefits it also has attendant risks.
More importantly, though, even if it were a perfect idea the question remains: how could it actually come about? The single referendum is already laid down in statute, and thus far the Government shows no inclination to change that. For Cummings, the moment when it might be feasible is when Cameron comes back with his renegotiation – and it would need a Cabinet heavyweight to stick their neck out and demand it, on the basis that the Prime Minister’s deal is insufficient. That’s a very big ask, and he only has a very narrow window in which to get an answer.