Screen shot 2015-10-01 at 13.04.56Last month:

  • Boff: 6 per cent.
  • Goldsmith: 61 per cent
  • Greenhalgh: 7 per cent.
  • Kamall: 26 per cent.


  • Boff: 4 per cent.
  • Goldsmith: 56 per cent.
  • Greenhalgh: 8 per cent.
  • Kamall: 32 per cent.

July (more than four candidates):

  • Boff: 2 per cent.
  • Goldsmith: 56 per cent.
  • Greenhalgh: 3 per cent.
  • Kamall: 28 per cent.

Our monthly survey is still open. But, since the actual open primary result will be announced tomorrow, I am tearing up the rule book and publishing what we have to date:

  • Boff: 4 per cent.
  • Goldsmith: 62 per cent.
  • Greenhalgh: 7 per cent.
  • Kamall: 27 per cent.

These are miniscule changes on last month, of no statistical significance, and whatever further replies now come in cannot make any material difference.

The usual caveat applies: this is a poll of Party member readers, not Party members in London – let alone voters in the primary.

That said, the view of observers is that Goldsmith will win, and an interpretation of poll is that this expectation is built into the result. But who knows – it may be wrong?

In ConservativeHome’s house are many mansions.  I recommended Goldsmith as the candidate most likely to beat Sadiq Khan.  Mark Wallace is for Kamall.  Harry Phibbs is for Greenhalgh.

And, given a choice of two candidates that I didn’t expect, I vote Goldsmith 2, Boff 1, having been “seized by a compulsive desire to see him as Mayor of London”.

Something there for everyone.