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ConHome Coalition CaS infographic simpler version May-01

The figures for which other party Conservative members would countenance a post-election coalition with are as follows:

  • Liberal Democrats - 77 per cent. The rigours of the election campaign are clearly not souring party members on the Liberal Democrats, as this is a four-point increase in support for a second Con-Lib coalition since last month’s poll.
  • Democratic Unionist Party 66 per cent. A very small two-point fall in support for the idea of a Con-DUP government, but Westminster’s second-largest right-wing party remains the second choice of partner for members.
  • UKIP - 52 per cent.  Nigel Farage has made some overtures to the Tories in the course of the campaign, but overall the percentage of party members backing the idea of a Westminster alliance with UKIP has only risen three points since last month’s poll.
  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 19 per cent.  Already surprisingly low, support for an arrangement with the Lib Dems’ sister party has fallen another three points since last month.
  • Labour - 8 per cent.  The Tory campaign’s ruthless focus on the threat of the SNP may explain the two-point increase in support for striking a deal with Labour. Nonetheless, a continental ‘grand coalition’ remains a remote prospect.
  • Green Party - 4 per cent.  The party’s election campaign has, unsurprisingly, done nothing to endear it to Conservatives.
  • SDLP - 4 per cent.  Our last survey found this ‘other Labour party’ tied with their larger cousin. The four-point gap may represent a hardening of members’ views against nationalist minor parties.
  • Plaid Cymru - 4 per cent.  Leanne Wood’s participation in the SNP-Plaid-Green ‘anti-austerity alliance’ confirms that her Plaid is not the one that helped John Major in the 1990s.
  • SNP - 2 per cent. No change since the last poll, but the proportion of Tory members prepared to bargain with Sturgeon remains vanishingly small.
  • Respect - 1 per cent. It would be interesting to meet some of the Conservatives who would like a pact with George Galloway.

And here are figures for which other party Conservative members would countenance a confidence and supply arrangement with.

  • Liberal Democrats - 81 per cent. An extra four per cent of members would agree to a looser arrangement with Nick Clegg’s party. This is a four-point rise on last time, exactly mirroring the rise in support for full coalition.
  • Democratic Unionist Party - 76 per cent. A slight fall compared to last time, and a substantial five-point gap between them and the Lib Dems.
  • UKIP - 70 per cent.  No change since last time, when it comes to a non-governmental pact UKIP are up there with the front runners.
  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland - 27 per cent.
  • SDLP - 9 per cent.
  • Plaid Cymru - 7 per cent.
  • Green Party - 6 per cent.
  • Labour 9 per cent.
  • SNP - 5 per cent.
  • Respect - 1 per cent.

These results are highly consistent with those of last month’s survey.

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