Opinion Poll graphic

Screen shot 2015-04-08 at 20.11.04The figures for which other party Conservative members would countenance a post-election coalition with are as follows:

  • Liberal Democrats73 per cent. This finding may be a proof that familiarity doesn’t necessarily breed contempt.  To some degree it reflects the fact that Tories have simply got used to working with the LibDems.  It is also a tribute, in its own way, to the staying power of the Coalition: I put my hand up to not having expected it to last all the way to the end.
  • Democratic Unionist Party - 68 per cent. Many Party members will see the DUP as a centre-right party when push comes to shove.  This has been enough in many cases to overcome any suspicions of its compatibility with the Conservatives that they may have.
  • UKIP49 per cent.  Some members will see UKIP as a natural partner for the Party.  Others won’t, but will believe that differences can be fudged.  Others still, as with the Liberal Democrats, will feel that coalition is a price worth paying to keep a Conservative-led administration in office: in some cases, respondents will have selected both options.
  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland22 per cent.  The Alliance is linked to the Liberal Democrats.  Since this is so, it is perhaps surprising that this figure is so low.
  • Labour6 per cent.  So much for the Grand Coalition.  None the less, Ed Miliband’s party is only the sixth least popular choice as a potential Conservative coalition partner.
  • Green Party5 per cent.  Party members correctly see the Greens as further to the Left than Labour and want nothing to do with them.
  • SDLP5 per cent.  Doubtless seen as simply another Labour Party, which explains why they come in on the same total.
  • Plaid Cymru5 per cent.  This result may or may not reflect Plaid’s shift to the left since the days when it helped to keep John Major in office.  Unlike the SNP, it seems to be keeping its options open.
  • SNP – 2 per cent.  Nicola Sturgeon’s party will never have been set to score well in this poll.  But the events of recent weeks will have driven its total even lower.
  • Respect – 1 per cent. George Galloway will have to wait to be a Minister in a Tory-led Government a little longer.

And here are figures for which other party Conservative members would countenance a confidence and supply arrangement with.

  • Liberal Democrats77 per cent. So three per cent extra would consent to working with Nick Clegg’s party if it isn’t in government and hasn’t got ministers.
  • Democratic Unionist Party77 per cent. Up they come to level with the LibDems.
  • UKIP70 per cent.  Not so far behind the front runners.  Members who may not like UKIP would none the less be willing to have their support – as with the top choices in most cases.
  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland31 per cent.
  • SDLP- 12 per cent.
  • Plaid Cymru11 per cent.
  • Green Party10 per cent.
  • Labour - 9 per cent.
  • SNP7 per cent.
  • Respect - 2 per cent.


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