Screen shot 2015-03-04 at 05.20.27Here are this month’s totals in full from Party member responses:

Boris Johnson: 22 per cent (down three points).

Theresa May: 20 per cent (down three points).

Sajid Javid: 14 per cent (up three points).

Liam Fox: 12 per cent (up three points).

George Osborne: 9 per cent (up one point).

David Davis 7 per cent (up one point).

Michael Gove: 6 per cent (no change).

Owen Paterson: 5 per cent (no change).

Philip Hammond: 4 per cent (up one point).

Jeremy Hunt 2 per cent (up two points).

Chris Grayling: 1 per cent (no change).

  • As ever, these changes from last month are very small, mostly within the margin of error, and a tribute to the consistency of the survey.  But there are a few interesting trends.
  • This is Theresa May’s third monthly fall, from 27 per cent to 23 per cent last month and now 20 per cent.  Most of the responses were completed before the announcement of last week’s immigration figures.
  • Liam Fox’s monthly totals since he was entered for this question have been 3, 2, 2, 7, 9 and now 12.  The former Defence Secretary is currently beating the drum for higher defence spending, has a clear right-wing profile, and is a very assiduous speaker at Association events nationwide.  Perhaps these factors explain his progress.
  • Last month, 65 people out of about 800 skipped this question.  This month, it is 61 out of roughly 750.  I can’t really add anything to what I wrote last month – namely, that this abstention rate shows that some party members naturally want to rally round the party leader as an election approaches to the point where they view the future leadership question as otiose. However, nearly 700 others did answer it, so they evidently take a different view.