Theresa May: 27 per cent (down two points).
Boris Johnson: 20 per cent (up two points).
Sajid Javid: 12 per cent (up three points).
George Osborne: 11 per cent (down three points).
Owen Paterson: 7 per cent (down two points).*
Liam Fox: 7 per cent (up five points).*
David Davis: 5 per cent (down one point).+
Michael Gove: 5 per cent (down two points).+
Philip Hammond: 3 per cent (down one point).
Jeremy Hunt: 2 per cent (no change).
Chris Grayling: 1 per cent (no change).
* Paterson 7.3 per cent, Fox: 6.6 per cent.
+ 5.39 per cent each.
A few points:
- Most of these changes are footling – movements of a few points that are within the margin of error, and demonstrate yet again the consistency of the monthly survey.
- Theresa May’s status as the front-runner remains unchanged, despite (or perhaps because?) of the bristling tensions between the Home Office and Downing Street.
- Liam Fox’s rating sees the largest movement – a five point rise. I can think of no particular reason for it; someone else may be able to.
- Among non-party member respondents, May’s and Boris’s totals are smaller (23 per cent and 17 per cent), but her lead is much the same. Paterson, however, is now third – running up a total of 13 per cent, and displacing Davis, who falls to 7 per cent. Sajid Javid is fourth: he is also on 13 per cent, but the margin of difference favours Paterson (who has 13.3 per cent to the Culture Secretary’s 12.6 per cent). Once again, this response indicates that the site’s readers as a whole stand to the right of party members.
Only 18 party member respondents skipped the question about who they would like to see leading the Party at the next election (David Cameron, at 78 per cent).
However, 51 skipped the question about who they would like to see leading the Party after the next election – indicating, I think, that most of these believe the question to be otiose.
My intention is to keep the first question going until March (because I’m curious to see what degree of Party member resistance to the leader remains even in the run-up to the campaign).
And my intention is also to keep the second question going until the start of the campaign itself, but am minded to poll party members themselves for their view.
Over 850 party members replied to the survey. The responses are tested against a control panel which was supplied by YouGov.