Screen shot 2014-06-02 at 11.03.02Last month, the Mayor of London’s support was on 23 per cent, and the Home Secretary on 20 per cent.

The month before that, the respective figures were 22 per cent each (Boris was marginally ahead, and thus went back to the top of the poll).

And the month before that, May’s support was 23 per cent and Boris’s 22 per cent.  That was the third month running in which she had just edged ahead.

In other words, our poll of party members has been very consistent and shown little variation.  But here is this month’s result:

Theresa May: 35 per cent (+ 15).

Boris Johnson: 23 per cent (No change).

David Davis: 10 per cent ( – 2 per cent).

William Hague: 8.3 per cent (- 3 per cent).

George Osborne: 8 per cent (- 3 per cent).

Michael Gove: 7.9 per cent (- 3 per cent).

Philip Hammond: 3 per cent (- 2 per cent).

Jeremy Hunt: 2.4 per cent (- 1 per cent).

Owen Paterson: 1.9 per cent (- 1 per cent).

Chris Grayling: 1 per cent (No change).

  • I can think of no other reason for the Home Secretary’s rampaging advance than her impressive speech to the Police Federation.
  • May has drawn support from almost every name on our list other than Boris. Gove’s fall in particular is spectacular: three months ago, he was at 15 per cent.
  • Among readers as a whole, the Home Secretary scored 33 per cent and the London Mayor 21 per cent.

It will be interesting to see how much of her new support May holds on to next month – but, whatever happens, it’s worth remembering that this poll is about future leadership.  The person Party members want to lead them into the next election is David Cameron, who scoops a record 77 per cent of the vote this month.

Over 1050 party members responded to the survey. Their responses are checked against a control panel supplied by YouGov.